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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9336)	1/19/2001 10:57:04 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Scott, my hubris-alert program has flagged this >This is not rocket-, nor neuro-, science.< At least you could say "I could be wrong" occasionally. Gottfried :)

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9336)	1/19/2001 12:41:30 PM
From: Henry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Scott, i agree with u on that if you buy now you can get 100% in the future (in my guessimate late 2001 or 2002). but i am wondering if we will retest the lows and get a chance to get 200% or more. i wonder if the recent buying is by traders or long term holders (one year or more)? i currently have some frontend and backend equip stocks. if the front end continues to weather the downturn better than the back end, do you think the backend stock prices would rebound better than the front end once we upturn?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9336)	1/20/2001 2:00:13 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

How can it be a textbook recovery when we haven't had a textbook decline in bookings yet? geocities.com siliconinvestor.com In 1996, bookings declined by 50% over seven months. In 1997-98 they declined about 70% over 11 months. In both cases, equipment stock prices did not bottom until bookings bottomed. So far, bookings have only declined by 10% over about two months. If the sector recovers from here, it will be many things, but it will most definitely not be "textbook."

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9336)	1/22/2001 10:58:11 PM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Scott RE "We've been through a complete cycle since Fall, 1998 and we've now begun anew. Expect this one to end Spring, 2002." Ahhh........ if it were only so simple. Unfortunately for me it is a little more complex. Under "Normal" circumstances, a full cycle would include a period of severely depressed revenues, a large drop in bookings and of course earnings disasters that show losses. We have not had that this cycle, or perhaps I should say, for the front-end companies anyway. So, if we are starting a new cycle , then it would mean in essence 2 stock price cycles within one business cycle. I don't recall that happening before. Stock prices are far above previous cycle lows, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. From my perspective, this is not the "no brainer"/ buy the bottom cycle low we had in 1996 or 1998. You do have a point though, if enough people look at those long term charts and believe in an eternal 2 year cycle, it will become a self fulfilling prophesy regardless of the underlying business fundamentals. I remember spring of 96 had a similar rally that gained 50+% from the lows, in the face of declining orders, but it stopped about there and the sector dropped to new 52 week lows. Hey , I'm not saying you're wrong, every cycle is different, I'm just saying that for me it is harder to commit funds here than at other times in the past. Regards, Eric.