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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dolfan who wrote (17518)	1/19/2001 10:59:11 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Dolfan, First I am long LU. So let's get that out of the way... but at the same time I have no misconceptions about what this company can do given how it has "imploded" over the past 12-18 months. The spin-off of Agere is clearly pulling money in here - no doubt about it. I don't however see this as folks betting that LU will return to it's historical success. Rather many, I believe, are investing here because 1.it is safer than some stocks that still have high muliples 2.estimates are so low now and expectation so low that they can't miss - can they? 3.it has arlready imploded - so how much worse can it get (always a poor way to invest) 4.beleive Agere will not be the last spin out and that the parts are worth greater than the sum (that would be me) LU may in fact be doing better than most stocks on the NYSE - the stock is doing well. However, I don't read this to translate into success. Why? Because all the data we have on LU is that they have failed to execute. So, what has mysteriously changed since their last warning and earnings miss other than McGinn left....? OG