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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (827)	1/19/2001 2:45:10 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 24758

JNPR is especially vulnerable. It may bottom around 80 in the next couple of months. All the optical plays are headed for the skids.

To: Bilow who wrote (827)	1/19/2001 8:42:51 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

The market for that product is quite doomed. I would think that the JNPR margins would erode as a sign that it is happening. Jack

To: Bilow who wrote (827)	1/19/2001 9:34:09 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 24758

There is a bigger concern than commoditization of the switch product lines. The first order concern is over the obsolescence of OEO. The second is the rapid introduction of alternative switch technologies, and the third is the elimination of the switch altogether. In a AON mesh topology with a million lambdas the nature of the switch completely changes. It becomes one of passive optic component in function perhaps as primitive as the prism. Between gratings, holograms, and FET gating, there is plenty of formidable competition for existing switch technology. CSCO knows this certainly, but can they field an adequate contender? Cao and Huber would say they don't.

To: Bilow who wrote (827)	1/20/2001 4:12:49 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24758

The market for that product is quite doomed, or at least the once incredibly high profit margins are. Sort of like when calculators changed from being $300 miracles to being $10 everydays, except with a lot less flexibility in the demand/supply curves. Along this line, what happened to the market for laser printers as they dropped from being $12,000 devices that only companies could afford to under $300 devices that anyone could afford? BTW I own a $1200 financial calculator if you know anyone that is interested in a collectors item.