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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DiViT who wrote (40637)	1/19/2001 4:26:42 PM
From: JDN	Respond to of 64865

Dear DiVit: I dont know where you stand on SUNW but if you feel 35% revenue growth in a company that is the COMMANDING leader in their field with a growing niche in storage and fingers in all the software pies which will inhabit every non breathing thing in the UNIVERSE does not justify a PREMIUM PEG figure then you are one CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR. haha. JDN

To: DiViT who wrote (40637)	1/19/2001 4:35:22 PM
From: Charles Tutt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 64865

The base problem is that people listen to analysts instead of doing their own thinking. That creates the further problem that analysts can move markets, so it can be dangerous to ignore them if you have a short term perspective. Longer term, analysts come and go. Although I don't recall seeing a scientific study of the issue, my guess is that a batting average as high as .500 for an analyst would be extremely rare if evaluated on a time frame that discounted the "self fulfilling prophecy" effect. I think I also read once that analysts are evaluated as if all predictions were made at the close of the previous day, so it behooves them to downgrade on a down day after they've seen the carnage. E.g. if a stock gaps down 10% at the open, an analyst can "capture" that 10% for his record by downgrading during the day. Even so, I doubt very many bat .500. JMHO. Charles Tutt (TM)

To: DiViT who wrote (40637)	1/19/2001 6:33:48 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 64865

>> Oh yes, it's never the fault of the company you invested ing, it's always the market makers/analysts/CNBC talking heads/... << I do agree with you on this point. I don't blame the analysts, even though I find most of them useless. I do blame part of this on SUNW management which I am disappointed with, but I don't know if anyone here wants to listen to me complain about how SUNW management didn't handle this one right. I will give you one quick example. The night before earnings when SUNW was rolling out it's new products the COO made some comments about how the economy is stronger than the market is giving it credit for. That sounds to me like hint, hint, our business is still marching right along and we aren't getting hit by the slowdown very much. Well that was a pretty dumb thing to say right before you come out with a revenue shortfall and then talk about how challenging things became. Well if the economy looks so damn strong to you then why did you miss, pal? Little things like that, plus no earnings warning and bullish talk by Sun management over the last month even in the face of deteriorating economic conditions hopefully will teach SUNW a lesson in how to manage expectations going forward. I guess when you don't ever miss and things have gone your way for so long, it's hard to start talking more cautious. DELL fell into that trap a couple of years ago.