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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2795)	1/19/2001 9:21:57 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

GZ I wasn't doubting that the index might go there but even at this point NAS average valuations are pretty stretched depending what you believe about what has happened to the historical equity risk premmium and future earnings growth rates. Some stocks like DELL are at fair value or even cheap depending on assumptions but some like ORCL or CSCO are expensive here (ORCL just looks cheap because of a capital gain on floating Oracle Japan - I was thinking of buying so looked into the numbers). MSFT could be expensive if growth in earnings is really slowing so much . Any fast return to double or triple these index levels - especially if the YHOOs, AMZNs etc don't reach ridiculous valuations this time will mean crazy valuations on some of these big-cap stocks. This time I hope I will be ready to short :) I was in July 98 but shorted some of the wrong things and so pretty much followed the index. I was travelling this March-April and I think I had "capitulated" to the perma-bulls and so lost again.... Funny how the SPX seems boring now when recently people were going on about how overvalued it was. I haven't seen it as being overvalued in the last few years. David