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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (45937)	1/20/2001 3:32:08 AM
From: Due Diligence	Respond to of 57584

FWIW: Message 15215703

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (45937)	1/20/2001 11:27:47 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57584

Interesting trading pattern over the last week. . .further defines the picture that January is painting us. Looking at the highs and lows of the COMPX 60 min, starting from the first day of January. . .we started selling off sharply. . .breath-takingly sharp decline, which set-up the Fed Rate Cut like it was scripted. . .250 points down from peak to trough of day 2. Then we BURST up over 450 points trough to peak day 3. . .only to give back 400 of those points over the rest of the first week. . .and the first part of Monday. We gap down on Monday the 8th setting up a classic S-4DML, which squeezes shorts for 300 points over 4 days, with highs hit in the final 2 hours of days 1, 3 and 4. Monday the 8th in the final few hours of the day, we BURST up 210 points, plenty of margined short-sellers in tow. We give back some on the 9th and start out the 10th 130 points lower than the high of 2 days prior. . . this is a sharp drop, which turns out to be a headfake. . .because one hour later on the 10th, we BURST 150 points from trough to peak. After a brief shakeout mid-day, the COMPX is taken higher and higher over the next 9 trading hours. . . 350 points trough to the peak put in on the 12th. Another headfake to the north, giving hope to bulls on Friday morning, the 12th, then we continue the slow decline. . .with the close on the 16th down 150 points from the prior days highs. We BURST overnight. Up 116 points from Tuesdays close to Wednesdays open. Which way do we trade Wednesday? Down again. . .for the the third day in a row. Thursday we breakout of a near-term [30-day] high and advance 208 points from trough to peak near the open Friday at 2740. What do we do Friday? We sell off all day long again, losing 85 points from the morning highs. Do you see many cracks in there, where an Individual Investor could have jumped in and said, "I think I'll just ride this market higher!" ? ? The feeling of January is that most every day, we trade lower. . .with 10 days where we traded lower throughout the day, from where we started. . . and just 4 days where we spent the better part of the day making gains. The losses mount gradually over several days. . . the gains seem to come all at once. . . .forcing traders to become market-timers. . . an art/science all its own. So again, the feeling of January is that most every day we trade lower. . . and yet from the trough hit on the 2nd trading day of the year [2087] to the peak hit yesterday [2740] the Nasdaq COMPX has moved up 653 points!! HELLO?? Were you in there with the bulls or sitting on the sidelines listening to Gloom and Doom stories? The Nasdaq gained 653 points in 12 trading days alone! Most of which being days where we traded lower or had the impression that we were trading lower. Let me put this another way. . . . Over 12 trading days, the Nasdaq moved up 31%!! Yes, the "Looking Into the New Millenium" prediction post had it right, though I didn't think we would move up so much so fast. . . and with as much money as there still is on the sidelines, February is increasingly looking to be a remarkable month. I sincerely hope that this post opens a few more eyes as to the fact that things are not as bad as they might seem. Despite the gloom & doomers who would have you be a loser your whole life, we are seeing extraordinary gains on a daily basis around here. I have had many emails telling me of 50%+ gains in a single week. It seems the microcaps have been on a tear of late. . . far beyond the larger tech market. This has brought many a dull portfolio back to life, though March's dizzying highs will continue to remain like mountain peaks in the rearview mirror. . . But don't tell that to the microcaps, many of which have risen 100%, 200%, 300% or more so far during January. . . putting smiles on many faces of their owners. OT> Time to watch inauguration events. . . then its off to a shooting match to relax a bit. . .[I'll look much the same as that photo in Money Mag.]. . . this time I plugged in my battery operated and thermostat regulated warmer for my 36" stainless steel barrel with 40 power scope. . . for that high-tech edge over my opponents. . >VBG< . . [boys and their toys] Have a great weekend, all. Rande Is