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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (38193)	1/20/2001 8:39:08 PM
From: StockHawk	Respond to of 54805

>>15.0 12.8 10.6 10.1 16.4 17.3 Your point is what? :)<< Geeze, you expect me to have a point? Next you'll be expecting me to make sense. Well, since you asked - now I'm going to make several points. 1. First, thank you trilobyte, for mentioning GNSS. This is a company that I do think bears watching. I've had them somewhere at the bottom of my radar screen for about two years. And, by the way, I think Fred had a very good idea with his suggestion for a third portfolio - the radar port. 2. That write-up that trilobyte pointed us to was, IMHO, over the top. Yes, every company, every great idea, has to start somewhere, but I can't believe that a company doing just 15 million in revenue per quarter can be the gorilla of anything. This is clearly shiny pebble territory. 3. The fact that revenues have risen for three quarters in a row does not mean all that much since revenues were depresses (artificially?) by an earthquake. Revenues are only $2.3 million higher than they were five quarters ago. No hyper growth here. Actually, if I had posted quarterly revenues going back further we would have seen steadily rising revenues from about 2 mil to 10 mil over a period of about six quarters or so. Two years ago this company looked like an up and comer and then there was a big drop to less than 4 million. So this is a company that has shown big revenue drops twice. Now, as mentioned, the last time was due to the Taiwanese earthquake and one could argue that this event was atypical, and not the fault of GNSS, but on the other hand, that's what often happens to small companies - they endure a strike, or a top manager dies or a big customer or supplier goes out of business, etc etc. That's why the shiny pebble realm is dangerous. 4. As I said earlier, GNSS has been on my "perhaps some day" list for quite a while. They are involved with flat panel LCD displays. The adoption of these displays has been very slow because they are very expensive and prices have stayed stubbornly high. Yet as I type this, I am reading it on a flat panel LCD that I bought just a few days ago. It measures 18" and a few months ago it may have cost $2500 - $3000. I got it for $1299 and Downsouth mentioned to me that he recently bought a similar model for even a bit less (showoff). The home page of the company I bought it from shows the monitor with the headline "$800 price drop" and that's probably not hype. One shopping-bot I saw presents a monthly price graph and it seems that these monitors had a big price drop recently. Now $1299 is still a heck of a lot of money for a monitor, but the 15" models are well under $1000 now so adoption will likely start to pick up. 5. Although I am a long way from investing in GNSS, it may be a good time to start looking more seriously at them. Although I know many here eschew the idea of spending too much time on the pebbles, I actually think it is more worthwhile to examine companies when they are out of favor as opposed to trying to looking at them when they are flying high. So I would be more interested in exploring GNSS on this board, a company whose stock has fallen continuously for almost two years, than I was in looking at say ELON or CREE when they were flying up. I think looking at a company before things start to happen helps us see it with a clear head. So, 6. I don't know why trilobyte decided to bring GNSS here. If it was to beat the drum on a stock he/she owns, that will not get very far around here. But if it was the first salvo in an effort to bring us some solid information in GG terms, then I for one welcome it with open arms and will look forward to more. StockHawk