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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTSherman who wrote (9345)	1/20/2001 11:13:26 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

WT - thanks for a thoughtful contribution. I agree that there is much reason for concern. Two things would be very helpful - a larger rate decline than a 1/2 point and a fairly quick and broad tax cut.

To: WTSherman who wrote (9345)	1/20/2001 12:02:58 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

This is understandable, since it would seem that over the last 8-12 years this has been the case. However,....it ain't necessarily so. This is the essence of the responses to my position. To phrase the response in more familiar tones, and in terms eerily similar to those referring to the semi cycle last Spring, 'this time is different'. Folks will cite economic data describing a precarious house of cards and impending collapse. The New York Times article on equity in home ownership is completely consistent with the tone of columns, written under the same masthead, by Floyd Norris et al. regarding economic dire straits. These columns have been appearing for probably 10 years...a period of complete economic collapse of the American economy.... Nine months ago we all fooled ourselves into believing the semiconductor equipment cycle would be longer than usual. This time is different. We learned the hard way for such presumption. Now many believe this down turn will be different and presages a secular and historical change in economic patterns. This time is different. Perhaps. Or perhaps we haven't learned much from our very recent lesson in shortsightedness.

To: WTSherman who wrote (9345)	1/20/2001 12:29:11 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

WTS, thanks for a thoughtful post. There's a new complication which may delay semi recovery. We could postulate that hi-tech in Silicon Valley needs to do well for the semi industry to recover. The CA energy crisis has just begun and already businesses report losses due to outages. I think that's the tip of the iceberg. Jubak addresses who may be impacted and who may gain. He also expects energy problems to spread from CA to other states. moneycentral.msn.com I see no easy recovery any time soon. Fed cuts won't help with energy shortages. [Samsung may cut capex by almost $1B: Message 15216351] Gottfried