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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (88964)	1/20/2001 6:23:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 97611

unless they expected growth in that range. One thing worth remembering is that being #1 means you're unlikely to have the kind of growth you once had, and that your growth rate isn't as likely to be as good as those behind you since they are growing from a lower base. Suppose I'm #1 at 100 and you're #2 at 50. We both sell 2 computers. I had 2% growth to your 4%. However, the margin between us, in real #'s, is the same. But you had double my growth rate. I'm not as impressed by figures such as this....as long as CPQ remains at the top - that's the key.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (88964)	1/21/2001 3:25:05 PM
From: Salah Mohamed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

El and Andreas ... About Dataquest PC Q4 numbers >>>>.."CPQ comes in fourth!" and>>>posted the slowest growth of the top four companies.<<..<<<< I wouldn't put much weight on what Dataquest said about CPQ Q4 PC sales. I'm not saying that DQ is wrong, but I'm not sure that they are right. In Q3-00, they missed CPQ numbers by a mile. Here is what DQ said about Q3-00: ********** dataquest.com Table 1 Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 3Q00 (Thousands of Units) Company 3Q/00 Share% 3Q/99 Share% Growth Compaq 4,449 13.1 3,908 13.3 13.9 Dell 3,800 11.2 3,123 10.6 21.7 Total Market 33,931 100.0 29,460 100.0 15.2 ******** Here is the actual numbers from CPQ Q3-00 financial results: ******** www5.compaq.com The Commercial Personal Computing Group posted revenue of $3.5 billion, an increase of 28 percent year-over-year. The Consumer Group posted revenue of $2.1 billion, an increase of 45 percent over the prior year period. ********** Now, if one takes the numbers from Q3-00 financial results and uses the stated growth rates, one ends up with Q3-99 sales of $2.73B and $1.45B for the CPCG and the CG, respectively. This amounts to $4.18B total PC sales in Q3- 99. Accordingly, the growth rate for CPQ Q3-00 PC sales is 34% (5.6/4.18 - 1). This growth rate is about 2.5 times the DQ number of 13.9%. Considering that PC prices were more or less stable during this period and the additional revenues from the iPaq Pocket PC were not significant in Q3-00 (about $60M - 50K units/month @ $400), the only thing one may conclude is that DQ numbers are not reliable. Also, the preliminary numbers from IDC for Q3-00 were similar to DQ numbers. However, after CPQ announced their financial results, IDC revised their numbers for Q3 to show that CPQ growth rate was more than 20% and higher than that of DELL's. In any case, I'm not concerned about DQ and IDC numbers for Q4-00. I would wait for the actual numbers from CPQ on Tuesday, afterall, these are the numbers which count.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (88964)	1/22/2001 10:49:00 AM
From: profile_14	Respond to of 97611

Maybe not so, El. They are focusing on profits and not share, and certainly not share at the expense of profits. The perfect example is Dell. Two warnings in one quarter alone. Now their earnings expectations are at 18 cents down from approximately 30 cents. However, in Dell's quest to maintain market share they are not growing profits -- and have not been for over a year. They will end up owning the solar cell calculator market at this rate -- a worthless commodity. I would hope that Compaq emphasizes its diverse product breadth tomorrow and how different it is from the rest of the pack. I also expect to see sharp figures reported for the repurchase program and a favorable guidance going forward, although cautious on the consumer side on the near term. As far as stock price action, much of it depends on the market psychology of the day, but unlike previous quarters, I expect an upward pop followed by some profit taking. In fact, I would welcome that to shake out some weaker hands, as long as the profit taking does not take us below 18. On the upside, maybe we'll see 22 or so. Best,