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To: BigBull who wrote (60118)	1/20/2001 5:05:19 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Good post, BB. Might I add that #'s 2 & 3 may even join hands, as the Cali-Ute crisis continues to bleed into the credit markets (witness the downgrade of SPX/EIX debt to junk status, the BAC and MBI recognition of (a small part) of their losses and the State of California getting placed on Credit Watch by S&P yesterday... dailynews.yahoo.com On Friday, Standard & Poors put the state's bonds on credit watch, reflecting a lack of investor confidence in California's ability to dig its way out of the mess. All we need now to complete the "Perfect Storm" is to hear that some large Japanese Bank is holding a boatload of Cali-Ute debt. Got gold?<g>

To: BigBull who wrote (60118)	1/21/2001 10:35:38 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

BB: I agree with you with respect to Japan representing a large time bomb. I have written about Japan's problems for close to three years now and it just keeps getting worse. About 18 months ago, a very good friend of mine who manages "big money", somehow came to believe that Japan was "on the mend" (remember that stupid phrase as applied to all of Asia two years ago?). He is now out of work. Sad. Can't disagree with your other choices either. Both could do it. Personally, I think it gets triggered by a free-falling U.S. dollar or another bond market freeze-up. Both of these are linked to any further Greenspan rate reductions (if he so provides). Another dynamite cap might be provided when stock market participants finally come to see that the consumer has gone on a purchasing holiday and put the mattresses against the door. I don't think we have much longer to wait, as the acceleration , especially with respect to the consumer spending slowdown, is breath-taking. Best, Earlie