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To: BigBull who wrote (60119)	1/21/2001 10:45:25 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

BB: I agree with the basic idea, and in fact made the bet in December that Greenspan could not provide a rate reduction at that time as he needed to get Europe onside. (I was right). That said, so far, inspite of serious discussions with the other parties, (a), the U.K. has said "no rate cuts" (at least, for now), and (b) Germany hasn't moved or indicatd that it will. The key is to recognize that the U.S. is not in control of this situation. Greenie can't reduce that interest rate differential and without European coperation (i.e., European rate cuts), he is snookered. If they cooperate, then the game does get extended. There are plenty of reasons why Germany (the key in my opinion) might not want to play ball, and it is well recognized that France would like nothing better than to see the U.S. dollar displaced as "The" international reserve currency. Best, Earlie