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To: ~digs who wrote (45953)	1/20/2001 5:39:08 PM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 57584

Pro great post!

To: ~digs who wrote (45953)	1/20/2001 9:46:08 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 57584

Good post. I don't disagree that we are near the point that inflation becomes problematic. What will be important to our stock market is the supply of money not the condition of the bond market. I know that sounds funny but for those trying to predict short term movement of the market you are pissing in the wind. As long as the FED perceives danger #1 to be a recession then the bond market is a casualty of war. The bond market will begin to take on a normal yield curve (vice inverted) and that has never been a discouragement for stocks. Greenspan may be walking on eggs for the next few months but anyone who thinks there is only one 25 basis point move left...good luck, you will need it. I agree that oil and oil service will do well in this environment. So will mining and even small cap stocks. We will see how the techs do. I'm not overly encouraged with large caps, particularly high PE... Value will outperform growth.

To: ~digs who wrote (45953)	1/20/2001 9:51:06 PM
From: Simon Thornington	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I'm rather surprised that I am so bearish these days. This recent run from the Fed easing has had declining volume, and is looking increasingly like a rising wedge in a falling market. I have a couple of stocks I'm looking at on the long side, but I'm primarily short, and very comfortable. However, given the easing bias, I am quick to cover the shorts, and thinking about going to a 50-50 dip-buying peak-shorting bias, rather than my current 70-30. Oil is still rising, and the US dollar looks like a flag in a downtrend. If not a time to short, this, in my opinion, is at least a time to be very very careful. Attached is my markup of recent COMP events (drawn sometime last week, not totally current, but still valid). Cheers, Simon. hasc.com