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To: Lucretius who wrote (60151)	1/21/2001 12:54:12 PM
From: jj_	Respond to of 436258

<that's nuts... nothing ever happens the same. this won't be like the nikkei nor like the 29 crash. it will be what it will be. no point in trying to cookie cutter it...> maybe Mr. Kurzweil should stick to optical character recognition & nanotechnology but he offers some interesting thoughts on the market... upside.com U: And the implications for money and banking are …? K: The Federal Reserve really has very little control. The influence it has is really just the bully pulpit and that people think the Fed knows what it's doing. I think this concept that the economy can or should only grow 3.5 percent per year is completely outdated. The economy really wants to grow at 5 percent or 6 percent per year, and that rate will continue to grow. The model that the Fed is using is obsolete. It's based on Old Economy principles. It measures things like capital investment and energy prices, but not bandwidth or megabytes or MIPS or exponential growth in intellectual property and knowledge, which are becoming increasingly important in our economy. These factors were not very significant 10 years ago. They're now having a measurable impact. The fact is that you have price performance growing exponentially for different technologies, not just computations through Moore's Law, but every information-based technology, including communications. Mechanical systems are getting more powerful; everything is growing exponentially in its price performance. That's an extremely powerful deflationary force. And these deflationary forces are not factored into the models that the Fed uses to set monetary policy, and that's why we're not seeing inflation.