Scott, my point was that none of us, threadsters or "analyst" get it right, thus lecturing this thread was not called for. As for my "calls" on VECO, quoting one post in vacuo without the historical record, is disingenuous.
Luckily, SI keeps all the posts "alive" and you will see that two weeks after the post you cited here, I did suggest that selling near the old high would be wise. However, Veco did get to within "shouting distance" of its high on Sep 29, two weeks after my call (I sold some there at $113), and on the VECO thread, to a question from Donald, I responded on Sep. 27 (post 2868 if you care to check), I said by all means, sell at $110. Then we had the break in early October (from $100 or so to the mid $70') and it held there for a little while, and while in that trading range, on October 6, I wrote: (post #2883) : " Yes, it does (warrant such a hair cut), as a matter of fact, I think that over the next six months, VECO could drift down to $35 maybe even lower.", which it did in late November, then on Nov 29, in response to a query by clearheart I wrote (post 2889):
"Clear heart, I think that once we find a temporary bottom here (and GTW/ALTR' warning today could create the panic required to put a bottom in) we may have a nice 50% rally from that bottom before the middle of January, I have already positioned myself just under $38 and plan to buy more at the next support around $27, but I will not overstay the "welcome" beyonds the first or second week in January, another bottom, possibly just under $20 could be in store, IMTO. "
VECO bottomed the next day at $30-7/8 and did more than 50% run before the middle of January. As a matter of fact after, that run to $53 or so within two weeks of that bottom, it retested that bottom twice, on Dec. 21st and January 3rd. And right now, as I have suggested to Donald on January 11 :
"I would not rush yet, there is major overhead supply at $60 and I believe that the stock should be
available again under $50, maybe even under $45.", we have had the best portion of this run.
I have made bad calls on VECO as well (and was caught in the maelstrom down of early October), and my current cautious stance on VECO could be wrong as well. The fact remains that I have been bearish on the sector since the BTB hit 1.44 or so (at the time, I simply asked, can the BTB go much higher?), and all these reentries (mid September, late November, December 19/20 and Jan 2/3, where calls for "temporary bounces", not a change in trend.
My current position (which of course could be wrong), is that the rally since January 3rd is another one of those bounces, not a major change in the downtrend.
Good luck to you
Zeev
As an add on, my current position on VECO is long, expecting (probably wrongly) that later next week we will rally again in anticipation of another rate cut on Janury 31st. This is a pure opportunistic position trying to capure that last thrust in the sector as I expect February to be a difficult "environment". Thursday, when Greenspan speaks before congress might give us an inkling, if he takes the same position as few other Fed governors have recently, namely, we are not going to have a recession and growth, while slower, is intact, may cause this pop to slow even before the 31st, if he voices "concerns" about the economy and calls "inflation dead', new fireworks might be ingnited. Since I have no idea what he will say, nor how the markets will reacts, I am "cautious" and only partially committed to equities. |
