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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (939)	1/21/2001 3:38:04 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 12411

Good points. I guess I was thinking more in terms of the SI community and the CNBC market cheerleaders when I wrote my post. I agree that many of the big fund "perma Bears" are just as guilty as the perma bulls. As for playing since the questionable 98 top though, it all depends on what you were trading. The indexes continued to climb into March 00 but the advance decline ratio went to heck in a hand basket after April 98 thus there were actually more stocks dropping than rising for 2 years. I played stocks like KEA and CPWR for years but then made more faster shorting them after that point. Same with most of the "glamour stocks" that were taken out one by one and shot over the course of 2 years. As I said, it is all in what you play but I think the desirable side of playing short is the moves are much faster. A stock or index tends to grind it's way up but the drops are fierce and rapid. As the mania wore on into the top, the puts were all but being given away for free making huge returns almost too easy. Breadth is finally improving now and the advance decline looks btter now than it has in a long time so I do think we are getting close to a final bottom if we didn't hit it already. ( I still think we revisit but have been wrong before <ggg>) I was just telling Don this morning that for the last couple years, I expected us to have a very long bear due to the amount of overly bullish manic type bull action we had in the past however looking at the charts now makes me think this could be much shorter and probably done by this summer or fall. I do think one last washout would be healthy though longer term. The action of this last week showed me that there is still too much "dumb" money chasing not the good stocks with good fundamentals but instead chasing the glory story stocks with nothing but promises and poor FA. Getting the last of the "suckers" should put money back in the hands of those that use their heads and not thier emotions to trade. JMHO BTW - I saw your multiple scenario post before and agree whole heartedly. When the market turns different than you had planned, it is good to have the alternate plan already mapped out in advance so you can react quickly and soundly. Not too many sound rational decisions are made in a panic situation. Good Luck, Lee

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (939)	1/22/2001 4:13:01 PM
From: da_cheif™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12411

chipster.....oh man i gotta buy a new hat after than one....thanks....I almost passed out when you mentioned Dr John King.....the American Ravi Batra..lol....John and I had a relationship for awhile till I got bullish after the crash....he never talked to me after that....ho ho....then he died and his son took over the newsletter if I remember right.....to John King who musta been Prechters step father ur somethin it was always the end of the world.....