To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (88971 ) 1/22/2001 7:01:39 AM From: hlpinout Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611 January 22, 2001 Europe PC Shipments Disappoint, Leading to Fears of a Slowdown By DAVID PRINGLE Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL The personal-computer industry in Europe last year had its worst fourth quarter in at least four years, provisional figures show, compounding fears that the market is maturing rapidly. Fourth-quarter PC shipments rose just 6.9% from the year-earlier period to 10.7 million, according to U.K. research firm Context. The gain compares with a growth rate of 11.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, when businesses were cutting spending on information technology because of possible year-2000 computer problems, and more than 20% in 1998 and 1997. The fourth quarter is traditionally the industry's strongest selling period. The weak fourth quarter caps a miserable year in Europe for PC suppliers. Even though a much lower proportion of European consumers have PCs than their U.S. counterparts, the market appears to be slowing dramatically. Context said unit growth for all of 2000 was 7.9%, well below the 20%-plus growth rates to which the market had become accustomed. Last year marked "a fundamental shift" in the industry, said Jeremy Davies, a senior partner with Context. The proliferation of alternative Internet access and e-mail devices, such as mobile phones and digital television, in Europe might mean that the PC market will become saturated much earlier than in the U.S., he added. Only about a third of U.K. households, for example, are estimated to own a PC, compared with more than half of U.S. households. Moreover, Mr. Davies said PCs acquired several years ago are still powerful enough to handle most business applications and, as a result, companies are tending to replace their computers less frequently. However, Context warned that its fourth-quarter figures include a significant anomaly and are subject to revision: Mr. Davies said the PC sales reported to Context by Dell Computer Corp., the third-ranked vendor in Europe, are estimates relating to its fiscal quarter, which runs from November 2000 to the end of January 2001. According to the provisional figures for the quarter, Compaq Computer Corp. of the U.S. ranked as the leading supplier, with 13.8% of the market. Context said Compaq was followed by Fujitsu Siemens Computers -- a joint venture between Siemens AG of Germany and Fujitsu Ltd. of Japan -- with 9%, and Dell with 8%. Weak European sales figures for the fourth quarter were expected given that the two major makers of processors for PCs, Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., both recently said global demand was sluggish during that period. On Friday, another market-research firm, Gartner Group's Dataquest, confirmed the global slowdown. Dataquest said world-wide PC shipments rose 10.1% in the fourth quarter, compared with 15.2% in the third quarter. Dataquest is expected to release its numbers for the fourth quarter in Europe this week. Although demand in Europe for desktop PCs, which make up the bulk of the market, is waning, Context said sales of portable computers and the servers that power Web sites continue to grow rapidly. Mr. Davies said PC suppliers increasingly are focusing on these high-growth areas of the market, and he added that price wars are likely to occur in these sectors in 2001. Write to David Pringle at david.pringle@wsj.com