Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cush who wrote (349)	1/21/2001 10:38:31 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 5144

Hi Cush, Thanks for the kind comments. One of these days I will send you some comments in BOLD or in Italic . BTW, here is my ( 3 month daily) chart for SVN. Note that I may be overly optimistic here... but, I am assuming that we are in a trending market. stockcharts.com[W,A]DACAYYMY[DB][PC5!C21!C200!H.02,.20!F][VC60][IUL14!LC20!LA12,26,9!LH14,3!LB14] Please note that I am using 5 + 21 day exponential moving average, along with ADX. ADX +D1 not overbought yet... ADX (black line) is trending well, just about to break 20. AS per your chart Cush, CMF looks good, Macd trending nicely (just over "0"), Slow Stoc & RSI overbought. On this chart at least, I am going to stay with the trend, if you look @ the 5 & 21 day exponential moving average they registered a buy signal 3 (maybe 4) days ago... If you are nimble, one could probably be in & out many, many times, playing the volatility. The weekly chart looks interesting... stockcharts.com[W,A]WACAYYMY[DD][PC5!C21!C200!H.02,.20!F][VC60][IUL14!LC20!LA12,26,9!LH14,3!LB14] My rationale for playing the longer term trend lies in this chart ( 6 month daily), stockcharts.com[W,A]DACAYYMY[DC][PC5!C21!C200!H.02,.20!F][VC60][IUL14!LC20!LA12,26,9!LH14,3!LB14] the following indicators have captured my interest... The 5 + 21 day exponential moving average appears to work well with this chart. On August 25 the 5 crossed over the 21 (BUY) & ditto again on the last week of Sept. (SELL) If one played this chart according to this chart, $20+ swings would have worked in the chartist favour... (FWIW) <p> <<I haven't been posting the KCA chart because I can't read much there. Consolidating & then thrust upwards??? I don't have a clue either... stops are still in. Regards, Peter

To: Cush who wrote (349)	1/22/2001 6:02:29 AM
From: SurfForWealth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5144

A new bull at the high-tech gate GETTING TECHNICAL - Bill Carrigan STAR COLUMNIST I was impressed with last week's powerful recovery in technology stocks. Several positive technical conditions are now in place to support an argument in favour of a new bull market in the sector. Consider the way the Russell 2000 index of small companies has been flexing its muscles. In November, the index displayed positive strength relative to Standard & Poor's index of 500 larger companies and the Nasdaq composite index by stubbornly refusing to go below the lows of the great technology meltdown last April and May. This leadership was significant because November was a period when the market was on the ropes following the collapse of Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp. and Nortel Networks Corp. The Russell 2000 leadership continued. In mid-December, the index broke above a key trend line. Now, consider the refusal of the Dow Jones industrial average of 30 blue-chips to roll over last year as many old-economy stocks rallied to save the market from a 1929-type crash. Consider, also, the strength of the Dow Jones average of transport stocks, which rallied to a new 52-week high early this month. Look at the trading patterns on North American markets recently. We've been getting a steady stream of negative earnings reports at night and of analysts downgrading their ratings on stock after stock. Markets have been opening lower the following morning. By mid-day, however, the markets have been calming down and a late-day rally has wiped out the morning losses. That kind of action is typical of a market bottom. Consider the recent rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. Historically, six months after the Fed's first cut in a series of reductions, stock prices are higher. Never fight the Fed. Consider the reappearance of a long-forgotten market leader. Once known as Big Blue, IBM Corp. is still the world's largest computer maker. Prior to the mid-1980s, a bad day for IBM was a bad day for the entire market. The shares faltered in the late 1980s but began a 10-year up-trend all through the 1990s that investors, nevertheless, largely ignored because they were hyperfocused on the new Internet, wireless and fibre-optic stocks of the late '90s. The scramble for these new stocks became a mania that climaxed with last March's technology spike and, then, meltdown. IBM shares had quietly predicted trouble ahead when they topped in the autumn of 1999. IBM was about to begin a 15-month bear cycle. I believe that IBM now will start leading the technology sector once again, but this time to the upside. The good news on IBM occurred on Thursday, when it opened with a stunning $8 (U.S.) gap above the previous day's close. This is especially significant because 13 weeks earlier, on Oct. 18, the shares had opened with an $18 gap below the prior day's close. When technicians plot two such gaps on a chart, they call the area between the gaps an island, because the area is separated from the main body of the chart by empty gaps, much like an island is separated from a land mass. An island is an important reversal pattern and the bigger it is, the more potent it is and the more long-lasting the new trend is likely to be. A chart island can be as small as two days or, as in the case of IBM, a massive 13 weeks wide. The last time I saw an island that big was in a Dow industrials chart in the summer of 1984 when a sagging Dow gapped up over the 1,100-point level and didn't look back. The two IBM gaps occur in the $100 to $105 range, leaving our island just under $100. We got more good news on Friday. The shares of Nortel and Microsoft also gapped up on the opening, creating two more island reversals. This is very bullish. We are going for a ride. Buckle up. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst. His Getting Technical appears Sundays. He can be reached at gettingtechnical.com on the Internet. thestar.com