To: 2MAR$ who wrote (468 ) 1/21/2001 10:21:40 PM From: 2MAR$ Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 762 Juniper ($135 win) Q4 beats expectations, raises forecast (UPDATE: Adds analyst quotes) By Eric Lai SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Juniper Networks Inc. (NasdaqNM:JNPR - news) on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter earnings that handily beat Wall Street expectations and raised its forecast for the full year, but said a slowdown in communications spending has made coming quarters tougher to forecast. Shares in Juniper, which makes routers that speed traffic along telecommunications networks, jumped almost 9 percent in after-hours trade after fourth-quarter operating profits came in 33 percent above the Wall Street consensus. The strong results eased concern that a broader slowdown would make it harder for Juniper to sustain the explosive growth built into the company's lofty valuations. ``It was a very impressive call, and clearly they've been executing very well,'' said Mark Edelen, an analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners. ``2000 was a very strong year for us and the numbers speak for themselves,'' said Chairman and Chief Executive Scott Kriens. ``The demand for (increased) network efficiency is as real as it has ever been.'' Juniper raised its revenue forecast for the first quarter to between $754 million and $774 million, bucking the trend among networking infrastructure providers, many of whom have already warned of slower earnings. For the 2001 fiscal year, Juniper now expects between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion in revenue, up from a previous forecast of $1.3 to $1.4 billion and more than double the $673.5 million reported in 2000. Juniper did not comment on future earnings. Analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial had on average been predicting Juniper to earn 81 cents per share in fiscal 2001. But analysts interviewed by Reuters said they planned to raise their earnings estimates in line with Juniper's approximately 12 percent to 15 percent increase in sales forecasts. ``That's a fairly aggressive projection, but it's a market that's exploding,'' said Tom Lauria, an analyst with ING Barings. Despite the improved outlook, Juniper executives acknowledged that it was becoming increasingly difficult to predict future earnings. ``It's clear that we're facing an environment of reduced visibility, and Juniper is not immune,'' said Kriens in a conference call with analysts. The Sunnyvale, California-based company reported pro forma earnings of $84.6 million, or 24 cents per share. The average analyst forecast for Juniper had been for 18 cents per share, according to First Call. Fourth-quarter revenues were $295.4 million, up 47 percent from the previous third quarter and up more than six times from $45.4 million in the year-ago period. Pro forma earnings excluded amortization of goodwill, deferred stock compensation, in-process research and development and charitable contribution charges in all periods. MARKET STILL STRONG FOR ULTRA-FAST PRODUCTS After the announcement, Juniper shares jumped to $139-1/2 in after-hours trade on the Island ECN Network from $128 at the close of regular trading on Tuesday. The stock has fallen from its peak of $244-1/2 in late October. Networking equipment vendors like Juniper have been hurt by reports that telecommunications service operators are cutting capital spending, as well as fears that economy is heading into a downturn. Juniper's ultra-fast M-series of routers, which are sold to telecommunications companies and Internet service providers, have made the company one of the few vendors able to take market share away from market leader, Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news). ``In this time of market disruption, the good companies will buckle down and take market share,'' said Edelen. The company said one reason for reduced earnings visibility is its increasing reliance on international sales through partners such as Ericsson , with which it has a wireless joint venture. Juniper now generates 35 percent of its sales outside of the United States. While acknowledging a slowdown, Juniper says that the fundamental demand for high-speed networking products remains unchanged. Kriens said Juniper's competitors continue ``to bring to market today what we were shipping 12 months ago''. To keep ``driving its innovation edge at full speed,'' Kriens said Juniper will increase spending on research and development in 2001 to between $224 million and $288 million from $90 million in 2000. Juniper tripled its employee head count in 2000 to 927, including 229 employees added in the fourth quarter and expects to at least double its payroll this year. ``The reduced visibility is definitely a reality, but in the end, the company feels comfortable that carriers will continue to spend,'' said ING's Lauria. Even after the recent slide in its share price, Juniper was still trading at 505 times trailing 12-month earnings versus a multiple of roughly 20 times for the Standard & Poor's 500.