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To: isopatch who wrote (84913)	1/21/2001 10:45:35 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OT/Recent Chinese military exercises raise questions: Here's an eye opening excerp from Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough's January 19th installment of their regular web feature, "Inside The Ring". China prep The Pentagon recently monitored a Chinese military exercise that provided new insights into plans by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for action against Taiwan. U.S. intelligence agencies detected military operations, both naval and ground force movements, involving a mock seaborne blockade against the island. What was unusual about the exercises, according to intelligence officials, was that the scenario included the positioning of two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups to waters near Taiwan. "The carriers just sat there," said one official. The Chinese military's assumption that the carriers and warships did not intervene to break the blockade in defense of Taiwan alarmed some analysts. The reason: It showed the Chinese military does not believe that the United States military is prepared to defend the island in that particular attack scenario. This has raised new fears of some type of miscalculation by the Chinese that could lead to direct U.S. involvement in a regional conflict with Beijing. The September exercise came seven months after Adm. Dennis Blair met privately in Beijing with top PLA generals. The Pacific commander told them that if China attacks Taiwan, the United States is prepared to defend the island. The Chinese generals' response was to dismiss the statement as "a laughable bluster," one official told us. Chinese doubts about U.S. resolve stem from the failure of the U.S. military to conduct any military exercises with Taiwan and the fact that U.S. warships never visit Taiwanese ports. The recent PLA exercise bolsters the claims of conservative defense analysts in Congress, who say the Clinton administration policy of ignoring Taiwan in pursuit of better relations with Beijing has increased instability on the Taiwan Strait. Congress sought to remedy the problem last year with the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which aims to increase U.S. defense cooperation with the island. The bill passed the House and had support from President-elect George W. Bush during the presidential campaign. A naval blockade was one of three methods outlined in a Pentagon report made public last month that would be used by China in a potential attack against Taiwan. In addition to a blockade, the Pentagon believes an attack on Taiwan could also be carried out as a massive missile strike designed to cripple Taiwan, and as an amphibious assault. The Pentagon report said that intelligence gaps had prevented analysts from predicting the outcome of a China Strait conflict.