To: t2 who wrote (16792 ) 1/22/2001 2:52:07 AM From: pat mudge Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24042 Instead of using market data, Mr. Moritz quotes obscure hedge fund managers or self-proclaimed telecommunications consultants. Findings from recent reports refute nearly everything he claims in his article. Dell'Oro on growth in DWDM:delloro.com According to telecom market research firm RHK Inc, the worldwide market for optical components used in terrestrial dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) and optical networking applications will grow from $5 billion in 2000 to nearly $24 billion by 2004. Driven by underlying growth in systems, optical content of modules, and higher-priced next-generation components, RHK expects the overall market to grow more than fourfold through 2004, with 90% growth expected next year. RHK on European Transport market:rhk.com According to a new report released today by telecom market research firm, RHK Inc., the market for European optical transport, including shipments for WDM, (wavelength division multiplexing), SDH (synchronous digital hierarchy), and DCS (digital cross-connect) equipment, will reach $9 billion in 2001 – with a CAGR of 25% through the forecast period. RHK on terrestrial optical components market:rhk.com According to telecom market research firm RHK Inc, the worldwide market for optical components used in terrestrial dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) and optical networking applications will grow from $5 billion in 2000 to nearly $24 billion by 2004. Driven by underlying growth in systems, optical content of modules, and higher-priced next-generation components, RHK expects the overall market to grow more than fourfold through 2004, with 90% growth expected next year. RHK reports specific product segments will exhibit triple-digit growth year-over-year. New products such as Raman gain modules, 40 Gbps actives, and tunable lasers will be deployed in optical networks starting in 2001. These new products, together with next-generation products for optical bandwidth management, will grow in excess of 200% per year to over $4 billion in sales in 2004. RHK on Asia-Pacificrhk.com The Asia-Pacific region, according to telecom market research firm RHK Inc, is expected to be a significant market for WDM (wavelength division multiplexing) and SDH (synchronous digital hierarchy) technologies over the next four years. New findings by RHK show spending within the region is likely to grow from $3.5 billion in 2000 to $17.2 billion by 2004, growing at an average 49% per year. Strong traffic growth in backbones and metropolitan networks, new construction of networks across the region, and deregulation within the Asia-Pacific region are prompting service providers to deploy optical networks. . . . “Tremendous growth in external submarine capacity is benefiting terrestrial networks, causing service providers to upgrade networks rapidly with WDM and SDH,” says Matt Walker, RHK’s Regional Director for Asia-Pacific. “In addition, deregulation in specific markets-such as China, Taiwan, and India-is driving the construction of massive new networks. Optical spending in Japan is also ramping up quickly, as NTT and its competitors evolve toward all-optical networking.” RHK on submarine market:zdnet.com The submarine optical market is expected to grow 40 percent per year — to $37 billion by 2004 — as carriers scramble to lay cable across the oceans to connect the continents with ever-faster optic fiber and become true global players. . . . Just a year ago, analysts were predicting slower sustained growth for submarine systems, with downturns in 2001 and 2003. Now, they're seeing no downturns, and predicting sustained growth of more than 100 percent per year.