Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (6216)	1/22/2001 1:43:52 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

XAU has taken out first level XAU 50 discussed last night in rydex update and this pup is gathering momentum. Now at XAU 50.34 up 1.42 up 2.9% at intraday high and if PD comes out of the red XAU will fly... right into the new moon on Wednesday. XAU 53-55 on deck. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (6216)	1/23/2001 2:09:59 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, January 22nd, 2001: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 419.8 Million SPX Short- URSA 210.2 Million NDX Long - OTC 2,117 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 55.9 Million XAU Precious Metals 33.5 Million Banking 76.1 Million Biotechnology 440 Million Money Market 998 Million ******************************************* Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 90.2 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 31.4 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 206.4 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 30.0 Million ***************************************** This is what we do on MITA Rydex Update: Set up for the position trade and at times it is at an opportunity cost of missing a move in some other index. But when you consider 20% per year good growth in a mutual fund - we will take 6.3% gain in XAU (5.7% in RYPMX)for the day. Major Market Indexes as of: Jan 23, 2001 Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low INDU Dow Jones Industrials 10578.24 -9.35 -0.1 10634.36 10509.92 TRAN Dow Jones Transports 2969.85 +16.56 +0.6 2983.01 2933.37 UTIL Dow Jones Utilities 357.96 +6.66 +1.9 359.71 351.19 NDX NASDAQ 100 Index 2643.13 -12.55 -0.5 2683.12 2598.85 COMP NASDAQ Composite 2757.91 -12.47 -0.5 2789.63 2722.96 NYA NYSE Composite 648.19 +1.62 +0.3 651.83 645.17 SPX S&P 500 Index 1342.90 +0.35 +0.0 1353.62 1333.84 MID S&P 400 MidCap 506.25 +1.90 +0.4 508.86 502.62 OEX S&P 100 Index 703.17 -2.06 -0.3 710.45 698.39 PSE PSE High Technology 905.67 -3.36 -0.4 913.92 896.40 MSH Morgan Stanley HiTech 791.15 -16.35 -2.0 807.50 785.03 SOX Semiconductor Index 707.39 -12.05 -1.7 720.09 697.92 XMI Major Market Index 1034.86 -0.52 -0.1 1038.92 1029.34 WSX Wilshire Small Cap 777.23 +4.34 +0.6 778.89 768.53 TNX 10 Year T-Note 5.217 +0.043 +0.8 5.233 5.172 TYX 30 Year T-Bond 5.605 +0.054 +1.0 5.615 5.566 XAU PHLX Gold/Silver 51.99 +3.07 +6.3** 51.99 48.97 XOI AMEX Oil & Gas 511.88 +4.68 +0.9 512.48 506.94 RUI Russell 1000 710.26 +0.34 +0.0 715.99 705.59 RUT Russell 2000 490.15 +2.06 +0.4 490.69 485.99 RUA Russell 3000 736.25 +0.54 +0.1 741.78 731.49 But we will not rest on our laurels. Rydex daily updates serve as the ultimate contrary sentiment indicator as it shows the daily dynamic shift in sentiment like nothing else. XAU Precious Metals TA rises a paltry 4.6 million. This is extremely Bullish as it has caught the long rydex money off guard and sleeping and will pound the short gold spec positions tomorrow. We closed at XAU 51.99 up $3.07 up 6.3% and at the high for the day. We closed right on the 200 day MA. This position trade set up has been in the making for some time and now is coming to fruition from the backtest: 1)MITA 5861 January 2nd Rydex update: ...<XAU did exactly what we wanted. A pullback from well off the highs but a higher close from Friday. A bonus is that Total Assets decreased 3.6 million on an up day. What are they smokin? XAU is one of the few areas of refuge right now and assets are decreasing. LOL. XAU closed up 37 cents to close at XAU 51.78 up .78%. Intraday high was XAU 53.08. This is the third time XAU has put the jackhammmer to XAU 53 brickwall resistance level. The other 2 times was 12/20 (XAU 53.13) and 12/21 (XAU 53.21). Recall XAU closed at a recent high XAU 53.11 on December 20th. I got out of XAU 1 day later when XAU closed at XAU 52.26. No opportunity cost lost here as I have made hay big time getting Long NDX OTC 1 day then staying Short SPX URSA until todays close. Get ready for the rocket launch in XAU. In MITA 5,702 (Way back on December 20th proved a prescient call)I mentioned this XAU 53-55 resistance would be tough to get thru but We are ready to mount that assault: The Backtest: ...<XAU up another 4.3% +... to close at XAU 53.13 up 2.20. The highest one day close since September 13th. This area XAU 53-55 zone is a brick wall it will be tough banging thru. Gona need a jackhammer because it is going to need several assaults to get break thru to the other side>.... I see gold bullion up $1.50 to $269.50 overseas now from New York close. Lets bring on the yelllow metal heyday with XAU leading the way>.... 2)MITA 6015 - January 10 Rydex update: ...<XAU Precious Metals Total assets within 3 million of a new 52 week low. Nobody believes after been beaten into the ground for 20 years. Higher lows in XAU followed by lower lows in total assets. Now that we got that full moon behind us, I believe we are going to break thru XAU 55 between now and Jan 24th into the new moon for an 11%+ move. XAU closed at XAU 49.16. BULLISH>... 3)MITA 6088 Friday January 12th Rydex update: ...<XAU gains back 1.5% of its 2% loss the prior day and XAU is now set up well for the breakout and jackhammer thru XAU serious band resistance XAU 53-55 above the 200 day MA 52.16 right into the new moon on/near Jan 24th. Target XAU 56.50-56.90 level. Total Assets in XAU Precious Metals still at paltry levels. BULLISH.>... 4)MITA 6167 Wednesday January 17th Rydex Update: ...<XAU finally putting in a bottom at XAU 47.80-48 level. Now at XAU 49 up 74 cents. Target XAU 56.50>... 5)MITA 6216 Friday January 19th Rydex Update: ...<XAU has an inside day Friday (a lower high and higher low from the previous day) and that usually signifies a major move is at hand after a flatline all last week trading close at XAU 48.92. With the new moon on Wednesday, tomorrow should see that first assault to XAU 50 minimum on its way to XAU 56.50. Minimum target for me is XAU 53 into Wednesday close. This is no insignificant feat given the 200 day MA is XAU 52. But after trading 10 straight days above XAU 50, we have now traded 11 straight days below 50 with the low close on XAU 48.17 on January 11th. The high close wass XAU 53.11 on December 20th. So we are in a tight coil ready to unwind and with Friday's inside day... lets get ready to rumble... and break thru that XAU 53-55 overhead resistance once and for all>... ********************************************* XAU and market Strategy: Now tomorrow at a minimum we will smash thru this XAU lower resistance band XAU 53.13 - 53.23 the intraday high set on December 20-21. And if this thing gets legs, we could blow the the lid off of XAU 55 tomorrow. Target remains XAU 56.50- 56.90. I will look to sell into strength into this zone and book profits. It is possible this scenario could unfold over as much as 3 days and into thursdays close - BUT NO LATER. If the market does my bidding, I hope we head lower in the broad market and shake out som more longs. BKX is Bullish and augers well for the bulls after this nearterm pullback runs its course. I believe there is a chance greenspan could possibly cut fed funds rate another 25 basis points before the end of this week and prior to next tues/weds FOMC meeting. I would ideally like to see the XAU melt-up tomorrow and take profits prior to the close and get long the SPX and NDX. But this may not happen until Weds close. SPX Short URSA and NDX Short Arktos TA way too low and this money needs to build higher to build a greater sense of doubt for the Bull to resume higher. If the market continues higher over the next few days and assets continue lower in these short funds, I will move into the short funds arktos and ursa.... Not to be overshadowed today is the QCOM buy at QCOM 69 3/4 this morning. I could not post this realtime as I was down all morning via cable modem. QCOM closed at QCOM 75 7/16 up 7.2%. I outlined my buy below 70 quite clearly last week in MITA 6164: ...<To: marginmike who wrote (6163) From: J.T. Thursday, Jan 18, 2001 1:57 PM ET Reply # of 6250 QCOM is gona run next two weeks... Being held down by options expiration... Happens all the time with this pup. I will look to buy Q below 70 today/tomorrow... Also April otm calls...>... I am going to sell QCOM into strength at 88 area. If there is one thing to learn is that the market never does what you want it to in the time scenario you expect. The market dances to the beat of its own drummer. Best reagrds, J.T.