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Technology Stocks : Commerce One Inc - (CMRC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob zagorin who wrote (1671)	1/23/2001 8:01:47 AM
From: Neil H	Respond to of 1938

A Commerce One-SAP lovefest Everything you wanted to know about b-to-b January 23, 2001 03:00 AM ET What I think I know about the b-to-b sector: Commerce One's (CMRC) decision to hook up with SAP (SAP) looks pretty smart these days. There was a lot of skepticism about this partnership when it was announced last June, mainly because the German software maker wasn't known for playing nice with partners. Most of those doubts were put to rest after Commerce One announced surprisingly strong financial results last week, topped off by a bullish outlook for the rest of the year. As previously reported, 30 percent of Commerce One's fourth-quarter revenue came from deals with SAP -- and the two companies just started selling their jointly developed software. There are 13,000 corporate customers using SAP software out there, which gives Commerce One a large pool in which to sell its products. Of course, Commerce One could also be in big trouble if this relationship sours. But there aren't any indications of that happening, so far. The b-to-b sector has largely lived up to expectations during this financial reporting season. Companies that posted strong numbers and presented a convincing case for future growth -- Commerce One and i2 Technologies (ITWO) -- have been rewarded by investors. Companies that have issued mixed results, including iffy guidance for 2001 -- Ariba (ARBA) comes to mind -- have been hit with some selling. When will the Alliance -- the b-to--b partnership between Ariba, i2 Technologies and IBM (IBM) -- file for divorce? The answer: Never, at least officially. Don't expect to see a press release announcing the dissolution of the Alliance. The end of partnerships like these is never as neat and tidy as their launch. Instead, the Alliance will just die a slow, tortured -- and quiet -- death. Well, maybe not that quiet. During i2's conference call with analysts last week, co-chairman Romesh Wadhwani fanned the flames with this quip: "Customers don't really care about first-generation e-commerce systems that purchase office supplies. They care about a complete transformation of their business." Do you think Wadhwani was talking about Ariba? I2, of course, believes it possesses all the b-to-b tools any company would ever need. Remember the days when Oracle was considered the World's Most Arrogant Software Company? These days, that title goes to i2. Let's just hope they can deliver on all their promises. Give Oracle (ORCL) credit for adding another interesting wrinkle to the b-to-b game: The importance of customer feedback and marketing data to supply-chain and product development software. When Oracle execs demo'ed their new collaborative b-to-b applications last week, they showed how data from a company's marketing and customer service departments could be used to improve the efficiency of a company's supply chain, or in designing better products. Sounds like a no-brainer. If customers tell you that your new product is the greatest thing since sliced bread, it makes sense to quickly get on the horn with your suppliers to make sure you have enough parts to keep up with demand. The same goes if customer feedback is negative -- why not use that information to huddle with suppliers for a redesign? You don't hear a lot of online marketplaces, or the b-to-b companies that sell them software, talking about this much. The big hurdle, of course, is getting your customer service database to share information with your supply-chain software, etc. Oracle, of course, has that problem beat (or so it claims) because its customer service, supply-chain and product development applications are all part of one e-business software suite, running on a single Oracle database. Of course, most companies or marketplaces don't run 100 percent on Oracle, so that would seem to open up some doors for CRM software companies like Siebel Systems (SEBL), Kana Communications (KANA) or E.piphany (EPNY) to attack this side of the b-to-b game. Question: Why is Covisint, the big automotive industry exchange, having such a tough time finding a CEO? All of the other industry-led marketplaces, it seems, are having no trouble finding executives to sit in the big chair. In the last few weeks, Exostar (aerospace), Elemica (chemicals) and Omnexus (plastics) have all announced CEO appointments. Covisint is the oldest of these mega-marketplaces -- it claims it will be the biggest and most successful -- so why is it so hard to find a chief executive?

To: bob zagorin who wrote (1671)	1/24/2001 10:24:39 PM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1938

OT - I also posted an Epoch Report on ARBA on the ARBA thread. The B2B sector is back in favor and I recently purchased stocks of both companies, although I own no CMRC at this point. I think it is fair to say that CMRC's earnings report was received more favorably than ARBA's (even thought ARBA's was also an excellent report) but I am a bit nervous that CMRC's stock price is approx. 115% above recent lows and feel a little safer at this point with ARBA, as it is only about 25-30% off its 52-week low. Also I am ultimately a fundamentalist and while ARBA is already profitable, CMRC is expected to eke out a mere 1 cent EPS gain in all of 2001. If the Market decides to play the valuation game at some point, ARBA is the safer bet right now. Of course the momentum is clearly with CMRC so I certainly could be wrong. Either way, I think this is an up and coming sector again. Good luck, everyone.