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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terrapin who wrote (314)	1/22/2001 4:55:46 PM
From: Puck	Respond to of 9255

Nothing that will correlate well with Nokia. The handset industry has been going through a component inventory correction since at least last quarter, so suppliers, such as TXN, ought to be expected to post poor results, as they did last quarter. I've never listened to a TXN conference call, but I've read that TXN executives sometimes comment on industry forecasts for handset growth. It's been reported that last year they re-iterated Motorola's initial growth forecasts. I wouldn't put much stock in their report as far as making reliable inferences about the handset industry's potential growth for the coming year. Remember, once inventories get lean enough their orders will begin to increase once again, and that could be happen even if handset unit growth were to prove to be very modest. I think their growth correlates much better with the handset industry's growth over multi-year periods whereas individual quarters provide little if any insight, except that this past year some handset manufacturers overestimated demand and are working off an inventory build-up.

To: Terrapin who wrote (314)	1/22/2001 5:16:52 PM
From: Puck	Respond to of 9255

From TXN' earnings report (nothing unexpected): -- Revenue from wireless will decline sequentially as certain handset customers continue to absorb semiconductor inventory. Which "handset customers"? Well, we don't know what Motorola's unit sales have been because Motorola management won't say, but we do know that their revenues from the business segment that produces their mobile handsets was essentially flat year over year, that they are closing plants, and outsourcing massively. Ericsson too is in the midst of a massive outsourcing program. Inventory build-up seems to me inevitable during the transitional period until the new manufacturing facilities ramp up production. Perhaps TXN felt the inventory build-up last year as a surge in orders and now sees slack order while their customers are transitioning. Since TXN doesn't comment about individual customers and because they supply most of the industry its pretty difficult to know how Nokia's business with them is from their own reports. Nokia did, however, sell 64% more units in 4Q versus a year ago, so TXN should have done some good business with them. There's only one Nokia, however.