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To: Road Walker who wrote (125795)	1/23/2001 4:16:44 AM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

Hi John, the forecast (10%) is an interesting datapoint (quite a change from last year too). However, the CEO hedges this estimate by saying, "barring a recession." Actual sales yield a 3.5 month backward glance, not a current picture, so that won't help you. The forecast is what the CEO may think things will be like in the future (when he gave the estimate), however, you know how quickly estimates can become outdated. i.e. Estimates can become out-dated, but pricing is current. So, the better predictor of up-coming/potential industry change is actually the TC's current price, whatever that may be at the moment, factored in by research determining if new suppliers have come online. Regards, Amy J