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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (11938)	1/23/2001 2:02:08 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78501

P. Kocmalski: regarding "lumber and forestry companies" The stocks that I follow are up from their lows. I'd not be a buyer now. Namely, IP - if it gets down to where it was when I mentioned it on this thread last year, I'll double my small position in this Dow stock, the country's largest private landowner. WY - I buy this one when the dividend yield falls into a formula I use for evaluation. That is - I try to do that - The last time the price was right (last year) I had no confidence, passed on the opportunity, and the stock rose away from me. PCL, BCC, I occasionally look at. I monitor LPX- again when price was lower, I just could not reach for it. I'll try again if the stock drops to lows. In a different arena, I'm partial to BMHC. I've mentioned it here several times - don't wish to tout it (it garners no interest on this thread anyway -g-), but I'll mention it again because it is still attractive (imo, based on standard value criteria)and lumber does account for a substantial part of its business - garage doors, roof and floor trusses, pre-hung doors, wall panels - which are sold to professional contractors and builders. finance.yahoo.com If you bought energy stocks when stock prices were low and the press was bemoaning the energy problems (gas was at or under 50 cents a gallon?? -- those were the old days all right), maybe the opposite might work now that energy is so expensive. I suggest looking at steel stocks, although I realize that this is just too ugly stinky a cigar to look at -- the structural problems with imports, brutal domestic competition, etc. etc. (Has anyone made any decent money buying steel stocks in the last 5 or 10 years???) Maybe more reasonable for a downtrodden industry would be airlines. We know people are still flying and want to travel, and the industry is trying to consolidate into just a few players (domestic carriers). Imo the stocks of these companies will, at some point, revert to higher prices (but maybe not before those share prices go lower -g-). I hold stocks in both these industries; will add more to airlines if/when they test lows. Paul Senior

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (11938)	1/24/2001 10:56:57 AM
From: sjemmeri	Respond to of 78501

I did a screen yesterday for O'S type criteria (low PS, up from 52 week low) but added a limit on debt2equity and then manually screened for insider buying in last 12 months (some a little, others a lot). Got the following: AMES ATPX CAV CEDC CONV HBI IECE JLMI KMX MGL NRRD PSAI ROWE SMNS TFH TRBR WAC WLK I didn't buy any yet (well except for rjm2's HBI in recent past) but several look very interesting. Unfortunately, AMES is shooting up on news today. steve

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (11938)	1/25/2001 10:31:51 AM
From: Kapusta Kid	Respond to of 78501

Mike Burry's new hangout... scioncapital.com

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (11938)	1/25/2001 3:52:25 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Respond to of 78501

Pete, fwiw you might find ffs, fletcher challenge forests, interesting. I do not own it and have been too lazy to investigate all the shenanigans going on with the parent company( recent huge writeoff and secondary offering befuddled me) But based on your theme this may be a sleeper.

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (11938)	1/30/2001 9:36:10 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78501

Only casually and related to this... futures.tradingcharts.com Which I follow as a leading indicator of housing starts and a piece of the puzzle when determining bank/builder/consumer confidence. In order for the lumber companies to become attractive to me, I need to see a discrepancy between the price of lumber and the valuation of the companies. Right now the companies are overvalued vs. the lumber and have moved in response to the expectation that recent rate cuts will trigger a reacceleration in housing starts. That's yet to appear, and the price of lumber, dispite production cuts, reflects that. You'd have to go back to 1991 to find lumber prices this cheap, and that's not inflation adjusted. Yes, a contrarian play worth following. Remember also, that higher electricity costs will affect all forms of industry in the West. Several mills have curtailed production for this very reason. BTW, what does this mean to you? "Most mills in the South are shut down until the market recovers. In some cases the logs cost more than the lumber is worth after it is manufactured." I don't know the industry well enough to know if this means that the price of harvesting logs exceeds the cost of selling the lumber made from them or if it merely means that logs are mispriced! One site of many. randomlengths.com