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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (38297)	1/23/2001 12:46:29 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, << Curious why you see SMS or "messaging" as a "data" tornado. >> Because it is 100% data - transmitted wirelessly. 15 Billion data messages a month, that 2 years ago was 10 Billion per year. What would you call it? Messaging is SMS, and will give way to EMS, and MMS, and messaging includes e-mail as well. Remember this. The 'killer app' of wireless mobile telephony (2G, 2.5G, or 3G) is, and will remain, 'Voice'. The 'killer data app' in mobile wireless telephony is messaging and will remain so for a long time. Fixed wireless is another story, for another time. << This type of "messaging" is simply using a voice system for short messages in lieu of voice mail, no? >> No. Absolutely not. Voice is voice, and data is data. Instead of paging, yes, to some degree. E-mail did not replace voice mail. It is a different manner of communication. They serve different purposes. I cant transmit a photo I just took with voice mail. Messaging extends and transitioning a platform that has been primarily voice-centric (GSM) to data, and CDMA, which began life as 100% voice-centric to data, and changing the habits of consumers in the process. SMS is used for simple text messaging including images, but it is also used for transmitting applications (say Java), provisioning for private consumers, and of course e-mail, and synchronization with a server or other client. << Also isn't this used primarily where the data rate is so slow (GSM) that SMS is the only practical "data" application? >> Data rates are slow in every mobile wireless technology today. That will start to change with packet data transmission using 2.5G technologies such as 1xRTT or GPRS, when they are debugged, and become generally deployed. Devices that receive today's slow transmissions can't yet store large attachments. It is not all about speed, although speed is important. Certainly messaging is 'practical' and multimedia (streaming audio, video, and large file transfers) is not. Right now the CDMA world is scrambling feverishly to catch up with the GSM world to enable 2-way messaging. They are catching up. Relatively speaking messaging will be as large in cdmaland as GSMland (even before - but especially once data roaming is addressed). What is important is that consumers are starting to use mobile wireless telephony for data applications and the statistics and forecasts are mind boggling. The mobile wireless data tornado has arrived. The mobile wireless multimedia tornado has not. << What I have been looking for is a data wireless tornado which reflects the wireless / internet nexus. >> WAP (and 'i-mode') start to get you there, but you are really looking at a tornado that is way beyond wireless data tornado, and shouldn't be confused with it. You need raw speed and optimization that is not here yet, and devices that will come out of pure 3G initiatives. << On another subject ... Here is another CDMA modem card announcement >> Primary application (as with GSM & GPRS modems) ... messaging. Secondary ... server connectivity. Tertiary ... web access. Primary users today ... corporate customers ... and that is their hierarchy. << Do you still "hate" WAP or are you warming toward it? >> As a user, I sure do. Looks like it will have greater utility with V. 2.0. As an investor, I like it because it is a method of bringing mobile wireless data to the masses. It's been great for CDMA, When you look at the 1,000,000 Sprint PCS subs, or the 750,000 Verizon subs that are "web enabled", that means they are WAP (and SMS or WIM) enabled. Remember, here is what WAP 2.0 (The Next Generation) brings ... * XHTML (with backwards compatibility to WML) * TCP * Color graphics * Animation * Large file downloading * Location-smart services * Streaming media * Data synchronization with desktop PIM. These are meaninful capabilities. Heck, someday I might use it for something other than retrieving a stock quote. For now I'll use phone as modem at speeds effectively the same as dialup.. - Eric -

To: gdichaz who wrote (38297)	1/23/2001 1:30:53 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

re: WAP & Messaging - Openwave (formerly Phone.com) - KDDI 3G CDMA >> Openwave Posts Q2 Operating Profit and Sees Better Year Ahead Yukari Iwatani Reuters 23 January 2001 Communications software provider Openwave Systems Inc., formed through the merger of Phone.com and Software.com, on Monday posted a quarterly operating profit ahead of schedule and raised its expectations for 2001. The company reported operating earnings of $15.8 million, or 9 cents a share diluted, in the second-quarter ended Dec. 31, handily beating analysts' consensus estimate of a loss of 3 cents a share, according to First Call/Thomson Financial, which tracks such data. However, the company posted a net loss of $228.6 million, or $1.38 a diluted share, for the quarter, excluding merger and acquisition costs and stock-based compensation. This compared with a combined loss of $168 million, or $1.04 a share, for Phone.com and Software.com in the year-ago period. Revenues rose to $109.7 million from $29.1 million over the same period. "It seems like this company continues to see good things across the board," Peter Friedland, analyst with WR Hambrecht & Co., said. Openwave's results surpassed its own expectations. The company, which joins Phone.com's wireless Internet infrastructure with Software.com's messaging software, said in November it expected to break even by the end of its fiscal third quarter ending in March. In after hours trading, shares of Openwave rose to $55-15/16 versus its Nasdaq close at $53-1/4. "We had significantly better top line growth... and we had the benefit of economies of scale from our merger," Alan Black, chief financial officer of Openwave, told Reuters in a telephone interview. The Redwood City, Calif. based firm said it benefited from strong wireless subscriber additions throughout the second quarter. Total active mobile subscribers using Openwave products grew to 12.1 million at the end of December from 6.9 million at the end of September. Analysts were expecting an increase of between 2.5 million and 3 million subscribers. "Overall, you've got a company here who is executing very well," said Ed Snyder, analyst with Chase H&Q. "The fact that they're first movers in this space is benefiting them... Carriers that have their WAP (standard) service are starting to buy their other products," he added. Openwave said that for 2001, it expects revenues to grow 10 to 20 percent to about $640 million, up from a previous forecast of $580 million. It expects full-year operating earnings of 46 cents per share, excluding one-time items. In a separate announcement, Openwave also said it, along with Siemens AG, will supply China Mobile Communications Corp. with mobile Internet services for subscribers in China. China Mobile had more than 66 million subscribers at the end of 2000 and is the country's dominant operator. Openwave also told analysts in a conference call that it expanded its relationship with Japan's second-largest wireless service provider, DDI Corp, better known as KDDI, to support third-generation wireless services. The company declined to provide further details but said this was the largest contract in its history. "They (Openwave's shares) are going to run heavy tomorrrow that's for sure," Chase H&Q's Snyder predicted. << - Eric -