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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (1633)	1/23/2001 4:46:13 PM
From: Junkyardawg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15481

Thats not a rumor they put that out in a press release several days ago. dawg

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (1633)	1/23/2001 6:01:19 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15481

I heard a rumor yesterday that Chrysler will lay off over 20,000 employees and shut down something like 4 plants. 50BP's still wouldn't take us back to where we were before he began hiking rates. Chrysler's problems alone are not a good indicator of the slowdown IMO..... what has killed Chrysler is the Honda Odyssey....simple case of a great product dragging away the high end customers from Chrysler's most profitable segment. The suburbs used to full of garages with a Camry or Accord on one side and a Chrysler minivan on the other. Now the other side of the garage has an Odyssey (there are nine in our subdivision alone by my last count, everybody paid full sticker, and at least six of the nine replaced Chrysler vans). If you take out that one product from the sales mix, Chrysler has lost very little market share or profit. And overall vehicle sales did not turn down until November, and even then it is too soon to call it a recession based on that. I think the Fed is not going to dramatically and quickly cut rates. I look for another 25 bp's now or soon, and then a lull....and then another 50 to 75 bp's later in the year. Rate cuts are a currency which cannot be used over and over again, and the Fed will be cautious about shooting its entire wad too soon, until the extent of the cycle becomes apparent. The short message: More buying opportunities await, and Naz 4000 and CSCO 60 are still a long ways off.