Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (60988)	1/23/2001 6:25:27 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

so we have to put up with this chit for ten years btw: the japanese didn't buy gold guess i'll look for some ten year cd's <ng> on the other hand what was supposed to happen anyway.... suddenly everything gets sold down to a rational value and we, the more sane people, step in and start investing with a capital I....... meehan and all the rest are dead on. (so far) and it's called ride the wave and they see the wave. n'est pas? i don't want to be biggs standing in the hallway duking it out over fundamentals with his nemesis applegate or whoever it was or grandstand out of principle either... principles don't make money, recognition does so hb.... are we due for a serious mind change here? remember the tussle i used to have with haim over didactics and reality? is that what we have? the answer is still no....but the question should be asked anyway seems to me.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (60988)	1/23/2001 7:23:05 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

A Japanese type deflation is not assured in the US. I used to believe this a couple of years back, but after watching the Fed in action, I no longer think so. One clue is that some US economists are advising Japan to create deliberate inflation to get out of its liquidity trap. I think these economists will have a much larger influence in the US, when deflation threatens. Also, the US consumer culture and relatively young work force make a Japan-like deflation much less likely. So, I believe that a more likely outcome in the US is inflation. After all, right now the US has become a debtor nation, so inflation may be regarded as less of a problem than it was back in the eighties. Of course, this will debase the dollar as a reserve currency, but that's a problem to be faced by the next generation.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (60988)	1/24/2001 10:47:52 PM
From: David R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

I am not sure that we could ever have a Japanese style problem. They have a huge number of bad loans, and nobody is willing to clear the books. I have had conversations with a friend who spent years in Japan. People have taken out 60 year notes on their homes that are now worth a fraction of the buying price. As I understand it, to declare bankruptcy would be a personal disgrace that would likely be accompanied by suicide. So, the drastic action necessary to correct the problem is not an option. Were we to have this situation here, banks would be closed, businesses would fail, etc., and we would get on with life. It might make for a tough couple of years, but certainly never like Japan. I have heard estimates that push recovery out as far as 20 years. Please correct me if my understanding is inaccurate.