Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (88790)	1/24/2001 6:00:47 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Mark, I think one thing we all have to keep in mind is that energy prices are set at the margin. It would not take a huge amount of new supply combined with an effort at conservation and alternative sources to reduce prices pretty dramatically near term. For example, everyone owns a gas guzzling SUV. When that becomes an economic problem, the next car may well be a more energy friendly vehicle. Things like winter windows, solar energy panels, geothermal energy, etc. simply are not used when fossil fuel is cheap. Make it expensive and we start changing our lifestyle, at least minimally. I totally agree with your question about how anyone can hold stocks if they see a recession on the horizon. My portfolio allocations do change based upon macro factors and, even more importantly, upon asset prices. They are currently 60% maximum income, 30% 90/10 and 10% cap app, with cap app being mostly long stocks. So I'm pretty bearish withing my total portfolio. I was totally bearish on the Max Income spreads about 6 months ago and have started putting in a few bullish spreads withing the past couple of months. The overall is still bearish, but not as strongly as it was. A lot of damage in the market has been accomplished in the dot. com arena. And within the cap app portion, there are stocks and there are stocks. Yes, DVIN and LGND and MVC are bullish holdings. But ASA, SWC and PEO, though long stocks, are stocks that could do well in a recession. I also buy and sell short futures straight out, though all I currently own are Swiss Francs and Euro contracts. Those are bearish plays on the dollar. I actively buy puts in the 90/10, though I have recently, again, bought some calls. This is a speculative, short term oriented portfolio, and the 90% in cash is my insurance against the bottom falling out of it. With BR, etc., I don't care as much about the price of Natural gas as I do about the price of the stocks, themselves. I like to buy them when they are hated and sell them when they are loved. Yes, I may miss one of those long trending uptrends, but if I get several 50-100% moves in these stocks, I'm willing not to stay on them when they no longer look dirt cheap.