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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (85261)	1/24/2001 4:02:48 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP - re the AGA's; what happened to your long NG futures call ? ... just curious (VBG)? Surely the pompomettes aren't going to just sweep this NG rollover under the rug here are they ? Peak Winter Demand season - tic' toc'.... and going into the shoulder season - it's the economy - ie: demand, demand, demand.... Curious to see the coming Q1-2-3 Year over year AGA's as rig counts are substantially higher this year...with a slowing US economy, conservation, fuel switching when available and the much higher rig counts; I think that somewhere between Sept & the end of Jan next winter that one can go "net short" the E&P's & make a 50-60% chip shot on the downside...especially if the slowing US economy grinds the global economy down a couple of notches which I think it will... Anyway "Q" - just curious as to if you ever got around to going long Nat Gas futures in a big way - as you were earlier posturing about ? Ironically one could have exited the Oilpatch last May at OSX 120ish+ and missed the entire run from $25 to $35 Oil and $4 to $9 NG and not missed anything sharepricewise in the OSX, or XOI ?.... that XOM could set another back to back record for the most money ever earned in one quarter for a company & be trading where it did last April nearly a year ago - whodathunkit ? That we could have 4% dividend payers setting records for cfps & eps and be trading at a PE's of low-mid single digits here ? - unreal... ... think about that one. That the majors aren't participating here troubles me; allthough it may be one helluva "safe" area to add some leverage to as well - as data comes in supporting we are soft landing vs. hitting a recession. But; presently - maybe the Oil Majors here are one of the best and most accurate "Recessionary" indicators the market has & their lack of participation here should sound a warning for the broad market; including the endorsement that this next upleg to the OSX should be sold into and just may be all she wrote for Boom 99-01.... ? I don't know about anyone else - but, I'm watching the majors - especially XOM here along with these 5-6 PE integrateds.... curious indeed... message of the markets (predicting a rapid recessionary environment & soon to be much lower commodity prices) - or a buying opp anomaly ? ... we shall see PS: on tech - ... gotta remember that someone is on the other side of all this high volume... someone is willing to dump one hell of a lot of Compaq et al here .... the pro's are selling, people with their own money invested are selling & the fund managers putting "OPM" to work are the buyers.... not a pretty sight.