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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (18477)	1/24/2001 6:01:59 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 60323

Fair enough...and you make a good point too....The "art" in the science is to determine "Did he mislead?" OR was in within the realm of "thing's change/stuff happens/etc"...Unfortunately, given the timing, it reminds me too much of the Dell example I mentioned... I'll be watching closely too...As said, I like the company and niche, but have learned the hard way not to fall in love with stocks (not saying you are, but clearly some others on thread have).......hope it works out for you....

To: orkrious who wrote (18477)	1/24/2001 6:05:55 PM
From: Andre Williamson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Geez, I'm surprised not to see anyone talk about theory #2: It is dead obvious SNDK's business finally hit big-time seasonality in Q4, as consumer products using flash are in a tornado. Q1 sequential comparisons for businesses with a consumer focus are challenging. In order to 'save' as much as possible for Q1, they allow for beating estimates by 4 cents and post earnings growth of 200%, but carry the rest into Q1. To keep analysts from raising the bar too much (after all, year-over-year earnings have been accelerating!), they issue extreme caution, which is easily believable given the doom-and-gloom environment. Maybe this theory is wrong, but I'm surprised I'm not seeing more like it. Will be interesting to see detailed posts on the CC. Andre

To: orkrious who wrote (18477)	1/24/2001 6:07:09 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Jay and others, I have not listened to the c.c. I clearly expected product and royalty revenues to be significantly higher. I expected to see a top line number in the range of at least $200 million. I can't understand how the EPS figure came out higher than last quarter. The loss of OEM business hurt us, but this was reportedly a lower margin business for SNDK to begin with due to the fact that these were low capacity cards. Perhaps this is a partial explanantion. The projection for royalties was in the range of $18 million if I recall correctly, and this was before Lexar agreed to the settlement. Thus, it would appear that royalty revenues were about $4 million less than anticipated. I wonder if the Toshiba JV and the renewed licenses with Hitachi have altered prior licensing revenue streams. As noted, Hitachi agreed to sell SanDisk their latest product, perhaps in consideration for a lower license figure. The fact that licensing revenues appear to have peaked is disappointing. I want to reserve further judgement until I have listened to the c.c. I think we reached $1.29/share for the year, but that achievement is clearly lessened given the other parts of the quarterly report. Ausdauer