To: zbyslaw owczarczyk who wrote (9442 ) 1/25/2001 10:30:39 AM From: Bosco Respond to of 14638 Hi all - don't mean to dump on LU, but I find it revealingzdii.com specifically, Most analysts shrugged off the fact Lucent missed first quarter estimates that were lowered four times. Sales came in at $5.8 billion, well below expectations. Lucent said it was being pickier about what contracts it chased. and at the end, Mr Henderson has offered B. Alexander Henderson, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, had a few interesting points. He noted: Lucent's loss should "stun even the most pessimistic observers," he said. Lucent's loss of 30 cents a share was bad, but not as bad as it could have been. Henderson notes that Lucent's tax line included a $864 million credit against the operating loss, which equals a 25 cents a share offset to the operating losses. Without that credit, Lucent had a pretax operating loss of $1.86 billion, or 55 cents a share. Revenue is likely to be down at a double-digit clip through all four quarters of 2001 year over year. "We think the decline is faster than even the most jaded analyst would have expected," said Henderson. He doubts that Lucent will be able to grow sales because it has cut back on vendor financing and discounts. Schacht's outlook merely called for sequential improvement in the financials. Nortel's (NYSE: NT) revenue increased by the same amount Lucent's declined. Nortel is No. 2 in market share. Henderson said this trend could continue, especially since Lucent could realistically fall short of the Street's already lowered targets. "We think the losses in the fiscal second quarter could be substantially larger than the Street is currently forecasting," he said. best, Bosco