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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (1526)	1/25/2001 9:19:12 AM
From: Stephen L	Respond to of 2293

FWIW I agree with all your responding points. In particular, the "weak" outlook for telco capex seems to be hitting older legacy systems hardest. With voice rates plummeting carriers need to purchase newer technologies to cut costs and offer newer survices. It is not strategic planning anymore, it is a race for survival. On a brighter note, Quest did OK during the last quarter; the debt markets seem to be a bit more open to financing the expansion of larger (new and old) carriers (XOXO, LVLT, GX and watch the TSIX pending $3 billion). WRT AVNX, they seem to have a technological edge on several key pieces to both current and proposed optical networks. The interleaver/mux expands capacity at a fraction of the cost of the altenatives and can be used for all optic add/drops. Given its proposed use in the NT and Fujitsu systems (as well as a possible play in the WCOM Metro DWDM system) I think output capacity will be the big issue for the company to hit their numbers. With the holographics tech reaching production later this year, the Pmux could ramp up significantly. (Aside: there was a Lightreading article that mentioned Corvis as a customer. Tech wise it would be interesting but has anyone hear of this or know if its true).

To: ahhaha who wrote (1526)	1/26/2001 12:01:47 AM
From: Kerry Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

I don't have time tonight to debate every single on if your points defending the current valuation of AVNX which was "only" $300 million higher yesterday. As a point of clarification, Scully was from Pepsi ( "The Pepsi Generation"), not KO as you stated. His book "Odyssey" was the biggest egomaniacal biography I have read. Greg Reyes replaced Bruce Bergman ( who was fired ) as President/CEO of BRCD before the BRCD IPO in response to severe internal problems at BRCD ( senior mgmt exodus, slow sales, production/quality problems ). These "growing pains" were solved PRIOR to BRCD's successful IPO and post-IPO run-up as evidenced by 6-7 consecutive quarters of double digit sequential growth/triple digit year-over-year growth and continued upward revisions in analyst estimates. Furthermore, BRCD conservatively only booked revenue AFTER a product was GA, unlike AVNX which as I read it is booking revenues for both pilot plant production as well as beta-testing. Also, BRCD replaced their contract manufacturer MSL with Solectron to improve quality and gross margins , again, these were moves made BEFORE the IPO. At least AVNX still has Seth Neiman on the BOD to prod them along. I am not saying that AVNX is or will be a failure. I am saying the Jury is still out. The Market will decide where the short term prices want to take AVNX in light of lack of visibility and probable negative market psychology exacerbated by the cautionary statements/warnings made by JDSU and PMCS ( and GLW yesterday ). I am willing to sit on the sidelines and wait to buy AVNX below 60, maybe even below 50. You confidently make a bullish case for "not waiting" to buy AVNX. Did YOU buy today or are YOU buying tomorrow?