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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (18539)	1/25/2001 8:07:51 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60323

Jay and Art, Thanks for your reasoned comments on the SanDisk report. I'm still trying to get a mental picture of the marketplace, from the information we have. The sales through retailers met expectations, up 50% sequentially. From Eli's comments that the shelves are empty, it doesn't appear that retail is slowing even now. That's a turns business, that is divided between after market, and I suppose those that buy a camera and upgrade the memory in the same purchase. The OEM business took the hit, down 20% sequentially. This is the part that doesn't make sense to me. Reports from Best Buy, Amazon and others suggest that Digital Cameras were one of their fastest growing categories. How can one of the fastest growing categories at retail produce 20% negative growth? What I suspect: As capacity increased in the quarter, SanDisk lost OEM business to other manufacturers that unexpectedly (to SanDisk) lowered their prices. I believe in the LV interview Eli mentioned something about competitors with very low prices (?). This doesn't jive with Eli's comments on market share, unless he was talking about dollar market share, not unit market share. And it does fit with the lower units, higher revenue and margins. I may be way off base on this, but it's the only explanation I can come up with from the contradictory information. If that's the case, that other manufacturer's are gaining the low margin, low revenue 8 and 16 MB OEM business, then the obvious question is did SanDisk decide not to compete in this low margin business, and concentrate on the more profitable and less commodity aftermarket sales. It's a decision that could logically be made. The result would be that SanDisk would need several quarters for the market to grow enough to replace the lost sales. Just thinking out loud. For the LTB&H folks, I think the thing to focus on is that the growth of digital cameras is not ending, just beginning. And the new applications for CF are still coming on line. And now, expectations are very low, an easy target to beat in the future. That's assuming the world as we know it doesn't come to an end, as Zeev is predicting. John

To: orkrious who wrote (18539)	1/25/2001 9:07:08 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Not many folks are on my ignore list. Limtex is too depressing to read. If he won the million dollar lottery, he would find a way to put a negative spin on things. I really wonder, as others do, if he isn't just a short, playing a stupid game. he pops up here and there....claiming to be long, but preaching the end of the world at the same time. if he is long, and his true attitude is what he puts in writing, then he is just a plain idiot. Why he would be long a stock he constantly preaches is dead meat, which he does quite frequently, is beyond me. Therfor, I conclude limmer is an idiot, or a short playing his games. In any regard, I have found it necessary to use ignore on him for the last few months...but for some reason the ignore feature is not working with SI's new batch of glitches....... Limmer....I'll bet you 1000 shares of sndk we dont come close to opening below $20.....sheez, I am amazed you can even take yourself seriously sometimes. Limmer, no need to respond to this....I wont even read it.....until the ignore feature starts working again, I will quickly skip past your post....so say whatever you want....I wont be listening.

To: orkrious who wrote (18539)	1/25/2001 9:14:03 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

JD- Nice try and I am still enamoured with SNDK but we have to face reality. Yesterdays announcement was a full blown disaster. there is no hiding it. 1. Product sales only to $154m from $150m in the Sept qtr 2. Revenue growth of 30% for fiscal 01. Great except most of growth in 2H 01. What does that say for 1H 01?????? 3. EPS for fiscal 01 only up slightly?????? Is this a joke? 4. ML at it again and this time I tkae them very seriously. Challenging Great expression. OK for those with a time horizon of 12 - 18 months. Excuse me but some of us have been sort of thinking that for about 4 years! Godd entry points over the enxt ?? few months I take that to mean they expect the stock to drop a bit! SNDK is a great company with fantastic potential but its revenues are collapsing and they have this limited visibility thing for the first half 01. Give me a break who on earth can see the second half 01 today. JD this is over. Never fall in love with a stock no matter how great the technology. Best regards, L