Relax everyone
Look at this
Snake year bodes well for markets
By Allen Wan, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:49 PM ET Jan 25, 2001
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SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - The year of the snake will be an auspicious one for the Nasdaq, but investors should bail out before the end of the lunar cycle around next January, one Chinese fortune-teller predicts.
"I see the market rebounding this year but be wary of a sell-off at the tail end of the lunar cycle," warns Y.C. Sun. "The snake has a tail, just like the dragon, which is usually negative. By the end of the lunar calendar in 2002, there will be a sell-off."
Sure, this sounds like a lot of hocus-pocus and Chinese mysticism will never become part of the financial mainstream. But even so, there's no shortage of people willing to pay Sun for advice on when and where to invest their money.
Born in Hong Kong, where fortune telling still thrives, Sun is a geomancer by tradition and training. He was taught by his father and practices his skills with his eight siblings, all of whom dabble in the craft. He's now based in San Francisco, where he's captured media attention for boasting a clientele representing the crème de la crème of the tech world.
Sun comes up with his predictions through a combination of feng shui, the ancient system of environmental placement, and I-ching, the 2,000-year-old Chinese law of the universe, which relies on use of the five elements (metal, wood, water, fire and earth).
Using these methods to create a composite chart and drawing on the birthdays of key individuals, Sun says he can come up with a fairly accurate prediction of where the markets are headed. This year, he's incorporating the birthdays of the stock market and the two individuals who will have most influence over its direction -- Fed chairman Alan Greenspan and President George W. Bush.
"I put together the birthdays of Greenspan, George W. Bush and the stock market and found common points, which are February 4 to March 5 and May 5 to July 7. These months will be fortuitous for the markets and bring good luck," he said.
Sun sees two jumping-off points for the Nasdaq this year. Either way, it's high or higher. "If the Nasdaq reaches 3,500 by the summer, then it can go as high as 4,260 this year. But if it reaches 4,260 mid-year, it can go as high as 5,650."
The Dow, on the other hand, will tread water. "I think it will trade sideways, hitting a high of 11,000 in the summer and 11,750 by the end of November."
For those still wondering what happened to the Nasdaq last year, it was all in the wood -- the element that symbolized the year 2000.
"Wood was under attack by the metal dragon last year," he said. "2001 is what we call a rattlesnake or silver snake year. The snake undergoes a chemical transformation and becomes a metal that is better than last year."
But before you start plowing your retirement funds back into the market, Sun cautions that he doesn't always get it right...or even close for that matter. Like many others, Sun expected a run-up before the U.S. presidential election. The Nasdaq went south instead.
His two stock picks last year -- Tipco and Ciena -- did wonderful until they came crashing down to earth. "They both ran up early and then faded."
Undaunted, Sun expects Ciena (CIEN: news, msgs) to come around this year, as well as Microsoft (MSFT: news, msgs) , PeopleSoft (PSFT: news, msgs) , Amgen (AMGN: news, msgs) and AT&T (T: news, msgs) .
"All of them have a common denominator, which is the fire element," he said. "But these are cyclical. February, May, June and August are when the fire is strong in energy," he said, adding that he didn't have positions in any of these stocks.
For those trained to focus on corporate earnings and economic growth for clues to the direction of the markets, Chinese astrology may sound a lot like the psychic hotline in terms of its credibility.
And while Sun admits that while he doesn't always get it right, his predictions tend to satisfy customers enough that they keep coming back to him. "This is not 100 percent. I get it right 70 to 80 percent of the time on average. I can make a difference to people by "pointing the right way to San Jose, so to speak."
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