Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Kern who wrote (5636)	1/25/2001 10:20:06 AM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Paul, I have no opinions on SNDK. Regards, Tom

To: Paul Kern who wrote (5636)	1/25/2001 10:31:37 AM
From: rogermci®	Respond to of 19633

Just a trade for me Paul.

To: Paul Kern who wrote (5636)	1/27/2001 11:43:57 AM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Hey Paul! Just curious if you made a decision on SNDK or not.. Just thought id add my two cents for what its worth. I shouldnt be surprised by the report but I really am.. There has been a ton of speculation in the industry that people were simply not willing to pay the ridiculous prices for flash modules, and it looks like the shorts were right about it.. SO many people producing flash memory now and just in time for demand to slow sharply.. I was actually looking for a bounce on Friday so I could go short but we didnt even get that. It may still bounce, but I think if your planning on taking a long term position in SNDK you may want to wait for the price to settle in the low 20s.. I just dont see any reason for the stock to find a bottom here at 30.. SSTI moved their reporting dates to the 1st of February which was really REALLY weird.. This is the report to watch for because it would prove without a doubt wether its a SNDK problem or the entire sector. My thinking now is that its the entire sector, theres such an abundance of flash piling up with few buyers, and in the next few quarters flash memory will fall sharply in price just like SDRAM. 6 months ago it would have cost me nearly $400 for a 256mb/pc100, now you can get it easily for under $100.. The market might try and say that its already priced in, the company is a cash cow, etc etc.. but for what its worth- the semiconductor stocks will often trade at or below book value no matter what the overall market is doing if people are unsure of what the next few quarters will bring. SSTI and SNDK were immune to this form of valuation simply because the growth was spectacular, and margins on flash memory was tremendous. I think this all changed last week and in 2-3 quarters SNDK and SSTI are going to trade like the rest of the sector. Great companies, but I just see alot of question markets going forward.. Really disappointing to say the least.. I think its really important to note that the huge short positions in flash plays started about 2 quarters ago. Amazing how smart money knew this would eventually happen. Anyhow- hope that helps some.. Just rambling but I think at the very least, there will be some great opportunities to trades these stocks as both longs and shorts try and fight out where a bottom is on this monster. argh.. Im still holding STEC as well.. Im praying that loading up the shelves at costco with high end flash products may have given them some fat margins to report this quarter.. Ouch