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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (17088)	1/25/2001 2:41:53 PM
From: luther yow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

From watching the level 2 selling on jdsu I believe the mm are artificially driving down the stock price. If tonights report is good (and I think it will be) then the price could really drive up tomorrow as everyone gets back into the stock. AGAIN IMHO Luther

To: t2 who wrote (17088)	1/25/2001 2:42:13 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

My feeling is that these smaller companies have far less internal component capabilities and that is going to show up in JDSU's earnings report just as it did with SDLI. One of the pts. made by CIBC was SDL's increase in sales to "non-top-five" customers. The report also noted that JDSU will give details of the merger closing in advance of the shareholder meeting. Pat

To: t2 who wrote (17088)	1/25/2001 2:48:56 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

Off and on all morning, waiting for Greenspan, so to speak, I've jotted down points to consider: I --- Carriers: * heavily reliant on a favorable money market to maintain profitability * stretched out on all fronts b/c of necessity to upgrade --- “do or die” * determine annual budgets during Q1 and traditionally under-estimate only to later expand projections * beginning to finance segments of projects as opposed to getting multi-year commitments up-front [waiting to get full funding means valuable time lost] II --- FED: * certain to lower rates by .25 to .50 basis points at end of January * will add to carriers’s cash flows and make loans easier to get III --- Fiber Optics sector: * NT guided at low end for Q1 and maintained guidance for FY * GLW expanded guidance for Q1 to allow for possibility of slightly lower to slightly higher, maintained guidance for FY, fiber demand is greater than capacity * SDLI maintained guidance with an upside bias --- possibly 2 to 3 centers higher for Q3 and maintained guidance for FY * NEWP guided flat vs. a traditional dip for Q1 and said FY will be up 40% biz.yahoo.com Capital spending for 2001 is expected to be approximately $20-$22 million, up from $16 million in 2000. The higher anticipated capital spending is due primarily to expenditures related to facilities expansion to support the anticipated growth of the company's products into the fiber optic component and semiconductor equipment markets. IV – Dark clouds: * Lucent’s slow descent into hell has rocked the industry (they were a bellwether at one time) * AT&T’s cable gamble may be fatal (anyone see a connection?) * Tight money has taken wind out of carrier spending and could turn industry on its head if FED doesn’t act decisively --- even though advanced systems will be funded, there appears to be a corporate holding-of-breath right now * CLECs have failed miserably with DSL deployments --- bit off more than they could chew and FCC couldn’t change competitive environment enough to bail them out --- noise level is extremely high even though their % of market is small * ILECs will be winners, but with competition eating dirt they aren’t under pressure to speed up process * Market, itself --- not always rational on short-term basis [over reaches at both ends] V --- Silver linings: * FED will move * Carriers will resume upgrades * DSL exploding in Europe [one major vendor estimates 40M lines in 2001], with Japan picking up, and Asia close behind * 3G gaining momentum in Europe and Japan * Barriers to entry for component suppliers still extremely high * Component suppliers continue to expand manufacturing facilities * New Metro market ramping as noted by increase in SDLI’s “non-top-five” customers * Fiber optics sector poised to become technology leaders, with only a handful of companies to choose among: [top are JDSU and SDLI, with GLW and ALAO close behind; Agere will be a contender when its spun out] * Much negativity already built in, leaving more upside room than downside All in my own opinion, of course. Pat