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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10533)	1/25/2001 5:37:50 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 30051

Zeev: We'll I thought it was going to be a great quarter for SSTI but I have now doubts. Plusses: 1) Other flash co's have continued to indicate strong demand (INTC, AMD anyway). 2) SSTI didn't prewarn. 3) SSTI just committed to new expansion. 4) While retail sales were down in the 4th qtr for cell phones (down from projections) demand was still strong. 5) Not in SNDK space. Different flash. Negatives: 1) Two new FAB's coming on line this quarter (INTC and someone else) increasing supply to meet slowing demand. 2) Company has made capital committments and will need to obtain cash. 3) CFO / Controller creditability issue. 4) Insider selling. Worries - i) I don't know management so I'll assume the controlls are in place and there are no inappropriate actions but we may see a significant drop in backorders (there could have been double orders due to the supply constraints). ii) they miss the 48 cents guidance. Actually without a warning if they don't beat by 10% it will be a disappointment from the past. You asked but I may reenter my 1/2 position if we see $11 tomorrow. Tim