To: JRI who wrote (18630 ) 1/25/2001 11:30:52 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to I have no idea if this has an effect or not. SNDK had such major breaks before that regulation. as for the speed of the recovery, I think we need a "catalyst". Late last May, SNDK made a major bottom around $41.5 and recovered more than 100% in a matter of barely a week or two. I believe the catalyst there was a string of consecutive (if memory serve,s some 7 days in a row) of extreme negative readings on the Naz tic (-1000 or worse) and extremely high excursion of the trin, all indicating that pessimism was rampant, from such negative readings the whole market can have a very sharp reaction. Right now, actually since the beginning of the year , we have not had any of these negative readings, the market in general is acting as if stocks (and many of them) are not being cut down 30% in one day. That is not an environment from which major rallies sprout, IMTO. Of course, there could always be other catalysts, but so soon after earnings, all I expected was a DCB, and so far we did not even get that. Another catalyst would be a major change in the Fed's stands, and we may get that next Tuesday, but it should no longer be a surprise, everyone already "knows" what the fed will do (g). So, I really do not see right now any catalyst for a major move up. The best I can see is a retracement of 50% of the decline we just suffered, and the "catalyst" for such a move is the major decline itself. If that does not happen by next Tuesday noon, I fear we may go into another leg down. You may want to know why I think so, and here I see a negative catalyst, including the continuation of a string of bad reports and unhappy "looking forward statements", and the post Fed action, when everyone realize that the Fed does not meet again until mid March.
