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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (2689)	1/26/2001 12:43:42 AM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<<Those researchers felt that the efficacy is VERY conservatively stated and that the morbidity / mortality benefits are quite clear and will prove to be exceedingly positive in ongoing trials.>> ALXN reported for CABG group, bolus + infusion: <<Additionally, at 30 days, pexelizumab reduced the death rate from 1.9% in the placebo group to 0.4%, or a relative reduction of 79% (p=NS). >> Did they commented what were death reasons? MI? Why is 80% reduction -> p=NS? Miljenko

To: Ian@SI who wrote (2689)	1/26/2001 8:49:50 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Ian, I still maintain a substantial ALXN long position, and so I believe in the company and the drug. Here's another attempt at looking at these results: 1. On a superficial level (which is where pretty much all the posted analysis and comment has been) the results are excellent. 2. If you look a little deeper, there are some holes. Only one of the two arms worked. They missed their pre-determined endpoints. They engaged in subgroup analysis. Their PR skated over all these issues. 3. At a still deeper level, however, the results are very encouraging. I basically buy the company's analysis of what the trial has showed. So much for the trial. Now let's factor in the shorts. I felt that the shorts would blow-up and magnify the items in 2 above. So far I've been wrong on that, and so my timing in parting with part (20%) of my shares was wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some further attacks, however. Peter