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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (85394)	1/26/2001 9:09:56 AM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

From Lehman this morning....note the reference to PKD at the bottom...got PKD? International Jackup Markets Poised to Tighten Significantly * We are getting considerable anecdotal evidence that international offshore drilling is accelerating and that the 20% increase in spending is starting early in the year. * In particular, the 3 supermajors (ExxonMobil, BP Amoco and Shell) appear poised to become much more active. * International jackup markets are already tight and will become tighter. * Currently 390 Jackups in total 347 Under contract = 89% utilization 359 actively marketed supply (other 31 cold stacked, out of service or in the shipyard) Thus, actively marketed utilization is 96% * Three jackup markets in particular (North Sea, West Africa and Asia Pacific) are poised for strong day rate improvement. North Sea - Dayrates are in the mid $50,000s now and are poised to move to low $60,000s by Feb/Mar and low $70,000s by Spring. There are only 2 stacked-ready jackups here and bidding is strong. West Africa - Rates this month just went through $60,000/day, but there are 7 tenders out (some for term work) with rates for short-term work in the mid-to-high $60,000s and for term in the mid $70,000s. Just one jackup in the region (a shallow water rig) is stacked ready. Asia Pacific - A laggard in the recovery, the market has recently moved to the mid-to-high $40,000s from the low-to-mid $30,000s. Today companies are bidding well above $50,000 per day for 300 floaters. * The most significant beneficiaries of this are Santa Fe International, Global Marine, Noble Drilling and ENSCO -- all of which are rated Strong Buy (1). * Most recent earnings reports have been at or above our estimates. Three companies reporting Tuesday with an excellent chance of an upside surprise are WFT, SII and PKD.