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To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2144)	1/26/2001 11:48:44 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 2850

It does look like it will be 50 basis points next week, The Fed will meet for two days and thus they will make their policy announce on wed jan 31st. If the Fed Funds 94% pricing in or a 50 basis point cut is not enough: A crucial element in the durable goods report was the third consecutive decline in what is considered the "core" component of capital goods ex-aircraft. Industrial equipment orders have fallen for five consecutive months, primary metals for three consecutive months. Outside of the volatility in transporation, orders are falling which argues that the investment boom which identifies the expansion and productivity boom is fading if not dying. December marked the month when annual growth of durable goods orders, orders ex-transportation and the "core" component all fell in to negative territory. Bottom line, despite the Dec gain the report adds more incentive for an aggressive Fed move next week.