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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (67759)	1/26/2001 5:45:51 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

The Nikkei crash reflected the crash of an entire economy AND political culture, from real estate to industry to government and beyond. It wasn't just hype in one sub-sector of a sector, it was the whole kit and kaboodle coming down - and putting to an end the once fashionable notion that if you didn't do things EXACTLY like the Japanese, you were destined for the trash heap of history. You HAD to have government-fostered oligopoly with everyone singing the company song and doing group calisthenics and working 14 hours a day at the same desk while paying 50 - 200% at least more than furrners for the identical item - or you were inefficient and spoiled and lazy and wouldn't ever make a car worth driving and would always be a couple years behind on all the best gizmos. Japan as the model country for the entire world? Talk about hype! It makes the dot-com adventure look reasonable. Give me the New Economy over Industrial Policy any day. Even just focusing on the market, and leaving aside the "culture of denial" issue, the Naz crash/correction has, bad as it's been, still left a 10-year-uptrend in place, and merely re-adjusted a peculiarly conditioned spike (Jan - March 2000) to the 25-year tech Bull Market trend that the '90s, for all the publicity, mostly underperformed. The sector rotation factor that you point out, Mr. Sphincter, actually makes even more sense than in your description, I think. In rough terms, the techs relate to the rest of the market rather like "the Rails" related to the Dow in classic Dow theory. One can fall hard, and one can rise while the other languishes. Until they're falling or rising together, the dominant trend is still intact. The dominant trend, though in some danger, is still the great Bull Market that seemed to be coming to an end in the late '80s, but instead re-accelerated for a number of well-known reasons. Lots of other things are different. Then, the only alternative to beer was Zima, which I never cared for. Now, there's Mike's Hard Lemonade, which is pretty terrific, IMHO.