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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18685)1/26/2001 6:09:43 PM
From: TREND1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev

As shown on the chart that only Steve 667 was interested in seeing, my estimate for SNDK low still remains $10

Larry Dudash



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18685)1/26/2001 6:12:31 PM
From: 5dave22  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
I agree with your post, for the most part. But ...

<In the recession-less scenario, I have a low in the Naz on or before the "ides of March" in the 2200 to 2400 range (if we do not get to 3050 by the end of next week, these numbers might even be further downgraded), I have SNDK creating a double bottom at $24, with a possible minor breach.>

If the NAZ hits 2200 in Feb, what is going to spark a run in March? NAZ 2200 will only delay corporate spending, further suppressing consumer confidence. Investors will be spooked to put their money into stocks long-term. Consumers will continue to be stingy.

What could possibly change investors/consumers minds by March, with ANOTHER huge hit in techs? That's only five weeks away, after all.

That said, I don't think we'll see NAZ 2200, as I don't think AG will let that happen ... if he can stop it with talk or cuts, he will. He likes Bush, but he is well aware of the Bush/Cheney team's ability to talk down the economy in order to get these tax cuts.

Best,

Dave

edit, if NAZ 2200 happens, I think SNDK low is much below $24.



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18685)1/26/2001 11:48:38 PM
From: Trader X  Respond to of 60323
 
Ides of March

I am also looking for a double bottom at $24 as a 40% probability. Also at 40% probability is a triangle reversal with this week's low being the higher low relative to week one of this month, provided that $30 holds support. A brand new low rounds out the remaining 20%.

I think what could induce a full blown recession is if the current tide of lay-offs snowballs into massive unemployment. Nothing causes a recession like negative wage growth. Then you go from scaring people from buying into actually taking away their purchase ability. Don't forget the California wildcard either. Loss of productivity in that state could be what tips the scales toward a real recession. A domino effect could ensue. Bush should begin emergency relief efforts to help out California, now. Or maybe Bush wants a recession he can blame on the Democrats?



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18685)1/27/2001 11:06:36 AM
From: im a survivor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Thanks for the thoughts ZEEV.....I assume you will be 100% cash, if not short, in the near term ?

Me? I'm gonna hang tight.....maybe take a little profit if we rally up to fed meeting, but for the most part, I will hold and write CC's as necessary to lower my cost basis, get some monthly income and make sure I am still onboard, should the naz rise. If she drops, well, I held all last year from 5000+ all the way down to the lows....I would have been far better off had I written CC's every month on every stock I had. I would have limited the losses I had. Anyway, I'll be doing a little mix of everything....won't be shorting anything, but will look at some swing trades on the volatility, write a few cc's on stocks I plan on holding long term, letting some "value plays" ride uncovered, and be prepared to buy some quality issues on any "massacre" that may happen in naz.....if we are looking long term, the best thing we could do is buy during the worst of times and buy quality in segements that will see emerging growth....

Thanks...have a great day

keith



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18685)1/30/2001 6:38:16 PM
From: Trader X  Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev, scenarios.

well here we are in "next week", and sndk has not done much to recover lost ground. I had been looking for it to bounce back to near 40 myself, but it's starting to look like it won't make it. What are your indicators telling you? you had writen:

I expected SNDK to bounce back to just under $39 by the end of next week, and for that we needed a good run and close above $33 today

Looking like a dip to test the mid 20's again, eh?



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18685)1/31/2001 9:42:28 AM
From: limtex  Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev-
1. John Chambers comments in Davos.

2. French industrial confidence plummeted, numbers released today.

3. Thai exports collapse - figures released today.

4. Japan OK? Anyone think so?

5. Todays US numbers.

Anyone still think is is just an ordinary recession. The imbalances are still there and Mr G still hasn't fully recognized the damage he did and continues to do.

Anyone think Mr G ought to be doing what it takes to at least try to reverse the damage he has done.

Best regards,

L