Compaq Execs See High-Margin Growth For Web Devices
Updated: Friday, January 26, 2001 03:48 PM ET Email this article to a friend! Printer-friendly version By Bob Sechler
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
HOUSTON, Texas (Dow Jones)--A new era of high-margin growth is dawning in the personal computer industry as "boring beige boxes" make way for all manner of Internet-ready, portable devices, Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ, news, msgs) executives forecast Friday.
The market for such devices will be larger than that of the traditional PC market by 2004, Compaq Vice President Mike Winkler predicted, speaking during the company's financial meeting for Wall Street analysts and major investors.
Last year, Compaq unveiled a host of new consumer products for accessing the Internet, receiving wireless e-mail and playing digital music. Winkler made clear that those are the types of devices Compaq sees driving profitability in the consumer PC market, although he also stressed that the company will continue to be a player in the market for more traditional PCs.
Still, he and Compaq Chief Executive Michael Capellas reiterated comments earlier this week that they won't be drawn into a PC price war. Dell Computer Corp. (DELL, news, msgs) captured some market share in the fourth quarter by sharply lowering prices.
"Revenue for its own sake is a worthless thing in the PC market," Winkler said. "We are aiming for profitable growth."
Later, in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Winkler said PC demand has been a "pleasant surprise" within the last two weeks.
"We have set very low expectations, and I will say (demand) is better than those low expectations," Winkler said.
Compaq previously projected overall sales growth in the first half of 2001 at an anemic 3% to 5% above 2000 levels, citing slowing consumer confidence and an overall downturn in the economy.
But early signals are that demand may be improving as consumers gain confidence action is being taken to ward off a recession, Winkler said.
"People may be getting less worried," he said. "Maybe consumer spending will reignite."
Still, he cautioned that it remains early in the quarter, so "the jury is still out."
CEO Capellas also emphasized during the analyst meeting that he's still forecasting a general slowdown for the first half of 2001, particularly in the consumer and PC markets.
The company didn't change any of the 2001 financial guidance it provided earlier this week after reporting fourth-quarter results, although executives described their forecasts as conservative, particularly in the first half.
For the full year, Compaq has projected sales growth at 6% to 8% from 2000 levels. It expects earnings per share for the year to come in at $1.14 to $1.19 a share, excluding items, compared with 95 cents a share in 2000.
Chief Financial Officer Jesse Greene said revenue for the company's high-margin enterprise computing division, which includes servers and storage devices, should grow by 13% to 15% in 2001.
Revenue from global services is expected to grow 6% to 8%, and revenue from its "access" divisions, which include consumer and commercial PCs, should grow 3% to 5%, he said.
Compaq executives made clear that they're banking on their higher-margin enterprise computing products to drive profits in 2001, echoing a growth strategy they've outlined previously.
The company will capture market share for servers and other enterprise products in 2001, CEO Capellas vowed, although he declined to identify specific competitors he thought were vulnerable.
"There's no question" Compaq will capture market share this year, he said.
Compaq also will attempt to beef up sales of products and services to small- and medium-sized businesses in 2001, a segment where Capellas acknowledged the company has "underperformed" in the past.
Compaq has a 12% market share in the segment, substantially below its better-than-20% share of corporate sales.
The levels of PC inventory at retailers and dealers also should decline during the year, the company said. Excess inventory is a concern for Wall Street analysts and investors because it is considered a drag on sales.
Compaq executives predicted inventory declines during 2001, saying there's a chance Compaq could finish the year with about two weeks of unsold PCs at sales outlets. The fourth quarter ended with closer to four weeks of unsold PCs, a figure executives said they were comfortable with but would like to see fall.
Overall, Capellas characterized 2000 as a year in which Compaq established a solid base for the future despite difficult market conditions.
He said the company increased sales 10% and increased its margins "despite the fact we had a pretty tough pricing environment."
Analysts gave the company credit for making significant progress during the year and putting in place a strategy that appears to be solid.
But some said the firm must prove it can pull it off.
"They're focusing on faster-growing, higher-margin businesses, and that's a positive," said David Bailey, an analyst with Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. who has a neutral rating on Compaq. "Clearly, they're better positioned than they were a year ago. But I think it's going to be a challenge."
-By Bob Sechler; Dow Jones Newswires; 512-236-9637 |