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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (88899)	1/27/2001 12:48:13 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

ild, I have read some of their stuff, but, really, I don't know much about them. If they are right, you still never know about time frame. It always seems to me that the time frame is much longer than I expect or much, much shorter. There is no way to gauge how long it would take for the writing on the wall to panic people. Recessions and depressions are different. Recessions in the US almost always start with a slowdown in consumer spending. Something spooks the consumer, inflation, job security, war (the 1991 mini-recession basically took place during the Gulf War), govt. scandals (Watergate is a good one and Iran Contra helped out the 1987 mini recession). In depressions, there is usually a hitch in the financial system that precipitates the situation. That is why the S&L crisis and LTCG got such quick resolution at a hefty cost. Of course, when there is a hitch in the financial system, the consumer isn't too happy, either, so your depression has a recession to help it along. Most investors today have never lived through a real bear market or a real recession. That scares me. But it is hard to get them to wake up and smell the coffee when they don't believe in Joe DiMaggio's invention (Mr. Coffee). <g>