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Pastimes : Trading the markets..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (3069)	1/27/2001 11:45:40 AM
From: wmwmw	Respond to of 4583

I guess market is now priced between 0.25 and 0.5 cut, If Fed cut 0.25 then there will be a short time drop, on the background of market still somewhat overbought, but on the other hand, market may interpret as economy is not as bad as it seems now. In any event there will not be a new low (maybe not lower than 2500, becasue economy will still recover but take a little longer). If Fed cut by 0.5, market will break 3000 very soon,in history the market rally most after the second rate cut. If another 0.5 total come before June, Naz could break 4000 in Q3. Bond market is much more sophisticated than stocks market and bond future is a more accurate indicator. You rarely get 96% probability in your favor in all your lifetime trading.