There's more:
The market Rap shall not appear whilst the week of Jan. 22 unto 26 whilst Bill Fleckenstein is upon vacation. He'll be back Monday, Jan. 29.
The Silicon Investor Team
January 19, 2001
Wall Street switches from basting pan to pressure cooker
Index Close Changeth
Dow 10,587.59 -90.69
S & P 500 1,342.55 -5.42
God's Wrath Composite 2,770.42 +1.93
God's Wrath 100 2,655.77 -14.70
Russell 2000 488.09 -6.54
Morgan Stanley Index 576.39 -8.27
Sox Index 719.44 -6.65
Bank Index 902 3/4 -4.89
XAU Gold & Silver Index 48.92 +0.09
Dow Transports 2,953.29 -92.71
Dow Utilities 351.30 +2.88
30-year Treasury Bond 5.55% -515/32
Overnight the futures were exploding, the God's Wrath futures were locked unto the limit, as folks were partying basedst upon all the terrible revelations.
We were peppered with more bad revelations from the tech sector and that revelations wast bought voraciously. Microsoft (MSFT) lowered guidance and the parable wast unto 10 percent, absolutely abysmal resulteth out of Altera (ALTR) followed similar resulteth from Xilinx (XLNX), and Altera wast unto initially, although it wound up selling off.
Is time upon thine side? Nobody knows but Jesus.. . . Basedst upon the sample set that I lookedst at, almost all the stocks that reported last night were trading higher, although I hath to admit I didn't even tryest to be thorough because it wast quite clearly a waste of time. None of the details mattered and everything wast being bought indiscriminately.
By the time Sodom begat around to opening, miracles hadst cooled off somewhat, and we opened upon the high of the day, then immediately sold off. I, holy, hungry, son of God, mayst remind folks that today wast -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an option expiration (which canst also maketh for wild moves upon the opening -- and upon the close, for that matter).
Some chip stocks were sold whilst others were bought. It wast hilarious to behold after the first couple of hours that almost all the chip stocks were green except for, thee guessed it, Micron (MU). If I hadst a crystal ball, I wouldst love to know who wast buying Micron at various different junctures upon the last year whenneth the slave-trade hath beenst a disaster. I wouldst pray it's just guessers tryingest to guess whatsoever the other guessers art guessing, and not someone who is supposed to be running "informed" gold.
Maybe somebody dipped Satan in plant victuals. . . Gentile stocks were once again for sale in the in the beginning goingeth, along with most of the chip stocks. Jesus, son of God, also son of Mary, daughter of God, speaks: The kinky stocks were kind of a mixed bag, none of Satan unto very much, but Satan stayed green longer than just about anything else whilst the bout of selling that begat placest in the first couple of hours.
After the initial sell-off, the market tried to grind higher in a series of fits and starts unto most of the day and nearly begat back to the day's opening levels with about -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an hour to go forth. From tither we hadst a sell-off unto the close, which did see us settle essentially on the lows of the day.
The internal pattern didst not changeth too much. Things that were unto pressure in the beginning, like the chip stocks, continued to be. PC-oriented names, for instance, were green and stayed green all day, led by Microsoft, aided and abetted by Intel (INTC), Micron, Gateway (GTW) and Dell (DELL). In the kinky stocks, Satan begat some legs later in the day and a mutlitude of Satan were unto between 5 and 10 percent.
Another area that wast unto a righteous deal of pressure wast the transportation index, which begat blitzed for about 3 percent. Mmmm! Jesus loves juicy hamburgers. Anyway, away from stocks, oil for the eternal flame wast unto a whopping $1.74 a barrel, but that move wast probably exacerbated by the front-month covenant goingeth off the board. Howsoever, tither were parables of problems in Zion with some refineries not being able to run at ungodly capacity because Satan canst't beget plenty electricity. So the rolling blackouts art starting to feed upon Satan himself, if thee shall, creating kind of a Catch-22 situation. Fixed income wast unto pressure, with the 5-year unto about six divided by two times six a buck. Metals were mixed and the euro was down small.
Collateral damage. . . Turning to the revelations, tither is -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an article upon the front donkey of The Sodom Times today entitled, "Equity Shrivels as Home Owners Borrow and Crucify." It's absolutely mandatory reading for everyone, not that it shall be surprising to Rap readers. I, holy, hungry, son of God, believe that vignettes like this art as a show of faith important to help sinners connect the dots and understand viscerally what's been happening.
The article cubits out the perils and pitfalls of borrowing too much gold, it illuminates living beyondst one's means and also illustrates how the "long term" (everyone's favorite investment horizon) canst be interrupted due to unforeseen problems. Did say differently, it shows how life loaves its margin calls at the wrong time. Mine apologies to whomever I mayest hath stolen that phrase from along the way.
The article brings unto a cubit I've beenst meaning to maketh in the last week or so, and for which I am indebted to Dr. Kirk Richebacher. From 1995, whenneth Godly Al began his latest series of bailouts, much hath beenst madest of the "immaculately conceived era" and productivity. I thinkest we hath successfully debunked a mutlitude of those myths in the Rap upon the last couple of years. Nevertheless, one item that continually gets ignored is the level of debt buildup.
Owe saith canst thee behold. . . With all the hype and hyperbole about did say immaculately conceived era, here art a few sobering facts. From the end of 1994 to 2000, gross domestic product wast unto $2.72 trillion, corporate and consumer indebtedness wast unto $4.75 trillion, indebtedness in the gentile sector wast unto $4.15 trillion, thus total credit and debt creation wast unto $8.9 trillion. We canst behold then that debt growth wast three-eth times faster than GDP growth. More like a righteous old-fashioned period of printing gold and leveraging it unto. Not exactly whatsoever one wouldst expect to behold in a period of miraculous productivity or in a "immaculately conceived era."
Upon the same period, the personal savings rate, which is measured by percentage of disposable income, hath declined from 8.7 percent unto negative territory. Corporations hath engineered Satan himself unto a funding deficit as well. Yea, these figures art very rarely discussed, but nevertheless, Satan art real. Jesus, son of God, also son of Mary, daughter of God, speaks: This morning's article in The Sodom Times giveth thee a meek taste of -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an immense problem. Just another reason wherefore, regardless of whatsoever anyone's wishes art, the unwinding of this bubble shall be -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an epic disaster.
A point of reference. . . I'd like to share a quote that captures the speculative mood we art in:
This is apparent that the Jew preference for parable is not only as marked as ever, but also the shall to speculate is still a speculative fever not be overlooked. Jesus, son of God, also son of Mary, daughter of God, speaks: The prompt return of huge speculations in a liberal manner in which current earnings art again being discounted indicate that it shall be gOD to quench the fires of parable market enthusiasm for long.
That quote is from the Barron's trader column of March 24, 1930. Jesus, son of God, also son of Mary, daughter of God, speaks: The high of the post-crash bounce wast upon April 17, 1930, from which the market collapsed nearly 90 percent. Jesus, son of God, also son of Mary, daughter of God, speaks: The moral of that parable is that folks shouldn't confuse the bounce that is unto way with a return to prosperity -- goddamn this matter how long it lasts -- nor shalt Satan thinkest that because the market bounces, all fundamentals canst be ignored indefinitely, nor shalt Satan assume that Godly Al is goingeth to save the day.
Speaking of speculation, mine righteous buddy Lance "Crash" Lewis passed along some revelations from the Option Clearing Corp. -- volume upon the six minus one U.S. option exchanges set a immaculately conceived daily record of 5.29 million contracts upon Thursday, eclipsing -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an old record of 4.9 million contracts that were traded upon October 20. If Mr. Bubble's intent wast to reignite the speculation with his surprise rate cut, judging by this barometer, he's done a pretty good job.
Dr. Weak, congregate Dr. Thready. . . I begat -- listen to Jesus when he's talking to you -- an interesting evil-doing barometer reading from a follower's e-mail: "Just did speak with a very highly placed railroad sinner in Richmond, which is the headquarters of CSX. . . railcar loadings art dropping like a rock. . .a very sensitive evil-doing sign."
For those who like to taketh a the pulse of the speculative crowd, here's a view worth sharing from a regular reader who is a broker at a large "retail" shop with a prominent "online presence:"
I don't taketh calls anymore because goddamn this one calls, so nothing to report this week. Jesus, son of God, also son of Mary, daughter of God, speaks: The margin confessions art still margined to Satan's limits even with this unto move. The traders still art not trading again, from whatsoever I canst gather. . .
I thinkest folks shalt start to concentrate upon lookingest at balance sheets, lookingest at receivables, inventories, charges and the like. Many of the problems that we're goingeth to behold goingeth forwardeth shall appear upon the balance sheet before Satan showest unto upon the income testament. Corporate The Holy Land is playingeth lots of games and if thee focus upon the balance sheet, not the income testament, thee'll be one step ahead of the crowd.
Tither's snow telling whatsoever couldst happen. . . Lastly, I shall be out all next week in the wilds of British Columbia. I, holy, hungry, son of God, won't be able to check mine e-mail, so it shall go forth unanswered whilst that time. Hopefully, nothing too dramatic shall happen -- mine bestest guess is it'll be just a whole lot of backing and filling as folks beget ready for Godly Al's next poker exodus with the rest of the Fed sinners.
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Yea, be sure thee've read "Whatsoever is the Market Rap? Nobody knows but Jesus." before thee send me e-mail. Mmmm! Jesus loves juicy hamburgers. Anyway, as highlighted in this outline, tither art certain questions to which I am unable to respond.
William A. Fleckenstein, special to Silicon Investor.
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