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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Eric L who wrote (8967)1/27/2001 8:56:44 PM
From: 45bday  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 34857
 
I have been watching NOK for some time, and felt that at 39 the support would be good which it has been. Now that it has moved below that level it seems to have no support, and the chart is extremely bearish. Tried to short it on FRiday, but my broker had no shs available. Any thoughts on this one over the next 60-90- days ( assuming the mkt trades between 2300 & 3000 )



To: Eric L who wrote (8967)1/27/2001 9:39:55 PM
From: foundation  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 34857
 
Eric - an article from NOK's very own site - The Feature - just for you!

Parthus Warns of 2.5g Delay
By The Guardian Unlimited, Jan 26 2001

Overheating mobile handsets and poor battery life could
delay the mass take-up of the next generation of internet
enabled devices by at least one year, Irish technology firm
Parthus cautioned yesterday.


The warning coincided with the first next generation phones
going on sale in Europe after Berlin-based operator Viag
Interkom said it had stocked 20,000 in German stores.

Mobile firms have gambled billions of pounds on developing
devices and buying licenses through which they hope to
deliver lucrative new services that will transform mobiles into
personal organisers and entertainment systems that have an
"always-on" high-speed link to the internet.

Big players such as Vodafone, BT Cellnet and Orange hope
GPRS (general packet radio switching) or "2.5 generation
phones" will be on mass sale by Christmas, but Parthus chief
executive Brian Long believes that target may have to be put
back until the end of 2002.


(((If true, it seems that Operators may be motivated to blow off GPRS and transition directly to UMTS - and reap the capacity benefits of all that costly spectrum that's laying fallow in their fields. <g>)))

Operators already have to contend with worries that demand
for the new GPRS handsets will oustrip supply.

BT Cellnet and KPN Mobile of the Netherlands have already
started offering the services to corporate customers.

GPRS phones are expected to be around three times as fast
as WAP phones, which were launched last year offering
access to the internet but have disappointed consumers.

"There are problems with GPRS for sure," he said. "I don't
think we'll see mass use of GPRS until the end of 2002. GPRS
cellphones will go on sale this year, but the big issue is
performance. Phones are running too hot and talk time is too
low."


Industry sources say that trials on prototype third-generation
or UMTS phones which will also be able to deliver live video
footage to users' handsets are proving even more
troublesome as engineers struggle to cram into handsets
technology that meets power, size and cost requirements.

(((Fortunately for Europe, Q and SpinCo will resolve pesky UMTS chipset issues that challenge simpler minds. <g>)))

"Some of the models that we have seen hardly work," said
an executive at one European network operator.


Parthus, which designs mobile chips, yesterday reported a
68% rise in revenues to $31.9m (?22m) and a net loss of
$16m. Shares climbed 10% to 209.5p.

thefeature.com
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"I think its safe to reasonably assume that by 2005 GPRS will be the predominant technology deployed in the world as most research agencies project."

I'm not certain it's reasonable to assume that GPRS will be up and running by 2005. <g>
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"Whats your guess?"

IMO, the average meat on the street will never see more than GPRS 20-28kbs average on the downlink - prior to optimization (provided that works) - problems with heat and energy - plus, of course - capacity restraints. Except, perhaps, in industry press propaganda and your euphoric posts. <g>

Regarding 1x, I look for average downlink in the 100-120kbs region - less up.

You're free, of course, to chuckle...and time, of course, will tell.
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"NOK knows ... and they know how to play the game. Better than anyone."

Game's changing.

Not gonna be 3 vendors fighting over handset - or more accurately appliance - primacy.

Gonna be dozens.

And the handset function within the appliance will itself be marginalized.

Gonna be far easier for game manufacturers (perceive, for the purposes of this statement, the concept of game in the very broadest terms you can envisage - to include all recreationally oriented or fashion-driven peripherals and applications) to integrate phone capabilities into their appliances than it will be for NOK to integrate games - in light of their rather limited scope of experience (in regard to these extensions).

One early, remedial example might be the PC-E Phone -
msn.zdnet.com

IMO, by 2003, NOK's margins will be in the toilet. 2002 may be OK - provided GPRS works like you believe... In a way I hope you're right - I'd like to dump my wife's shares at the old high. <g>
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Scorecard today reads: 25 GPRS networks launched..

Yep. A lot of really pissed Operators wondering when the **** the phones will work.
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happy sunday, ben