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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (6640)	1/28/2001 5:05:12 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 197246

<At what point will it make sense to Operators to blow off GPRS and go straight to UMTS - and reap the capacity benefits of all that costly spectrum? > Ben, I am going to watch with a great deal of interest the situation in New Zealand because Telecom New Zealand has an analogue system and is now getting CDMA ready for launch in May. Vodafone thought they had GPRS ready to roll in their GSM system. Now GPRS is on hold and looking very, very bleak. Telecom could take huge amounts of business by Xmas if they price CDMA right and go for market share. Vodafone will be flat-footed, bamboozled and beaten before they can move a muscle. Right now they will be having strategy meetings [maybe not actually right NOW, but probably on Tuesday after the long weekend holiday] about what the heck to do. It might be that they should panic, ditch GPRS, default on payments [presumably there were performance parameters in their GPRS purchase agreements] and order a CDMA system to overlay their GSM network. Or, go flat out in their recently won 3G spectrum and get whatever 3G CDMA is available and get it on-line quickly. Because of lead-times, it would be hazardous to their health to wait until the end of the year to see how well Telecom goes with CDMA in their old spectrum. If Telecom has great success, it would take Vodafone about 18 months to get a competing network going and they could lose a ton of business in that time. This year will be a lot of fun in the CDMA world and 3G. I expect to see a stampede to 3G sooner rather than later, in NZ and around the world, as the next great dud after WAP crashes in the market, leaving GSM operators high and dry. I expect early 3G infrastructure buildouts and I would NOT be surprised to see a total collapse of the W-CDMA stack of cards. Mqurice

To: foundation who wrote (6640)	1/28/2001 8:57:23 AM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197246

I wonder if the geniuses at AWE are doing a big UH-OH after painting themselves into the GSM/GPRS corner. What do they do if GPRS never works right now that they are DOCOMO's paid prostitutes, do they go directly to WCDMA and pay the Q it's due? Oh how sweet that would be.